New Geostrategy polling suggests Berlin’s upcoming state election is heading towards a highly competitive contest, with the left-wing Die Linke emerging as the city’s strongest political force just over a month before voters head to the polls on the 20th of September. The election will determine the composition of the next Abgeordnetenhaus, with voting taking place alongside elections to the city’s twelve district assemblies.
Geostrategy’s latest voting intention poll, conducted between the 10th and 14th of August and reaching 1,000 respondents, puts Die Linke on 20%, narrowly ahead of the CDU and AfD, tied for second place on 19%. A close race for third position sees the Greens at 15%, followed by the SPD on 14%. Polling below the 5% threshold for representation, the BSW receives 4%, whilst the FDP is on 3% and other parties collectively account for 6%.
The 2026 election is the first since the 2023 repeat election, which was called in response to reports of irregularities during the previous 2021 vote. This unusual event means the 2023 Abgeordnetenhaus has sat for a shorter time than its predecessors, and the incoming representatives will remain in post for a full five years, barring an early dissolution.
Our findings, which are broadly similar to recent comparable polls, would mark a significant shift in Berlin’s political landscape since 2023. The CDU, which won 28.2% in 2023, now polls nine points lower, while the SPD has fallen from 18.4% to just 14%. By contrast, Die Linke has risen from 12.2% to 20%, establishing itself as the likely overall winner, while the AfD has more than doubled its previous 9.1% vote share. Given the tight range of the top three candidates, small moves before polling day could see any of these coming first, though momentum remains with Die Linke, who have benefited from a sharp fall in support for the centre-left SPD since March 2026.
Other surveys have generally placed the Left, CDU, Greens and AfD within a narrow range, although the precise ordering has varied. Geostrategy’s latest survey sees Die Linke benefiting from an ongoing collapse in the SPD vote share and a smaller reduction for the Greens. Our survey is also notable for finding the AfD level with the CDU, and only one point behind Die Linke, thanks to its support base in the east of the city and a growing acceptance of the party by centre-right CDU voters.
The result comes amidst considerable uncertainty for the governing CDU-SPD coalition. The CDU has governed Berlin alongside the SPD since 2023, but the coalition has faced criticism over its record in state government, with incumbent mayor Kai Wegner announcing in July that he would not seek re-election as the CDU’s top candidate.
If these figures were replicated on election day, no single party would come close to a majority, leaving difficult coalition negotiations necessary to determine the next government. With Die Linke narrowly ahead and the CDU and AfD tied for second, the final weeks of the campaign could significantly shape the balance of power in Berlin.
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