New Geostrategy polling suggests the AfD is on course for a historic victory in the state election for Saxony-Anhalt, with the party holding a large lead over the governing CDU. This comes less than three weeks before voters head to the polls on 6 September. The election will decide all 83 seats in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag, with 42 required for a majority.
Geostrategy’s latest voting intention poll, conducted between 17 and 21 August amongst 1,000 respondents, puts the AfD on 43%, a 23-point lead over the second-place CDU on 20%. Die Linke comes third on 13%, while the SPD lags in fourth on 7%. The Greens stand at 5%, with the FDP and BSW both on 4%. Other minor parties account for the remaining 4%.
The figures represent a dramatic change from the 2021 state election, when the CDU won 37.1% and 40 seats, compared with 20.8% and 23 seats for the AfD. The CDU currently leads a coalition government with the SPD and FDP.
The latest result is broadly consistent with recent polling trends, which have seen the AfD establish a lead of around 20 points over the CDU. Recent surveys have generally placed the AfD between 41% and 43%, while the CDU has remained in the low-to-mid 20s. Geostrategy’s poll places the AfD at the upper end of its recent range and the CDU slightly below its recent polling performance. We also find a slight uptick of support for Die Linke, who have benefited from the ongoing weakness of the SDP.
In terms of minor parties, the FDP and BSW are both at 4%, leaving them below the 5% threshold required for representation in the Landtag. If neither party crosses the threshold, the effective share of votes going to parties represented in parliament would be concentrated even further among the leading parties.
The scale of the AfD’s lead has made Saxony-Anhalt one of the most interesting state elections of Germany’s 2026 election year. The party is seeking to become the largest force in the Landtag and thereby to potentially form Germany’s first AfD-led state government. Current polling has placed the party around or just above 40%, although an outright majority would depend on the final distribution of seats and the performance of smaller parties.
If these figures were replicated on election day, the AfD would be comfortably the largest party in Saxony-Anhalt, while the CDU would face a dramatic reversal from its 2021 position. With the election now just three weeks away, it is an open question whether the AfD’s lead can be maintained through the final stages.
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