New Geostrategy polling across Estonia shows a divided electorate, just eight months from the 2027 Riigikogu elections.
The upcoming vote, which will be held on March 7th, will see all 101 seats contested.
Geostrategy polling conducted between the 23rd and 30th June 2026 exposes a divided electorate, torn between centre-right leaders Isamaa and their populist rivals, the Centre Party, on 24% and 23% respectively.
Traditional centre-left stalwarts and former junior coalition partners the Social Democrats are in third place on 14%, followed by governing liberals Reform and the nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), both on 12%. These findings are broadly in line with other national polls, but show a slight advantage to Isamaa in what is becoming a clear two-horse race for first place.
Outside of the top positions, our polling indicated the right-wing Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK) may breach the 5% threshold to enter the Riigikogu, with 8% of 1,025 contacted likely voters indicating they would vote for the party. Other findings included relatively weak support for Isamaa breakaway Erakond Parempoolsed, at just 3%, and a similarly poor showing for Reform’s junior coalition partners, E200.
If the findings of our poll translate into election results, the current government under Kristen Michal and the Reform party may struggle to build a workable coalition. Any eventual arrangement would require the involvement of multiple smaller liberal parties and the populist Centre Party, while a right-leaning coalition without Reform would require the cooperation of Isamaa and both the EKRE and ERK.
All of these scenarios would include major ideological compromises and bring into government parties formerly on the fringes; previous polling indicates an Isamaa-Centre coalition would find strong national support but may prove politically impossible, while a Reform-Isamaa grand coalition remains significantly short of a working majority on current projected results.
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