Approval Ratings: Starmer Slips as Farage Rises, Badenoch Holds Ground

The latest poll reveals a political landscape marked by volatility and deepening divides, with all three main leaders, Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, facing distinct challenges. The data shows that approval of Starmer’s leadership has weakened slightly, while Farage continues to strengthen his personal brand and Badenoch holds relatively steady despite growing discontent within her own party.

Keir Starmer

Starmer’s net approval rating has fallen compared to the last poll. Currently, 32% of voters approve of his performance (9% strongly approve, 23% approve), down from 34% previously. His disapproval remains the same at 42%, though his strong disapproval category has ticked upward, showing more entrenched dissatisfaction.

Kemi Badenoch

Badenoch’s ratings remain broadly stable. 30% approve of her performance (10% strongly approve, 20% approve), holding firm from 30% last time. Her disapproval has increased by 1% to 29% overall (16% disapprove, 13% strongly disapprove). However, a notable feature of Badenoch’s ratings is the high “neutral” response: 29% neither approve nor disapprove, underscoring her status as a relatively unknown new leader still working to define her national image.

Nigel Farage

The standout performer is Nigel Farage, whose approval rating now stands at 41% (20% strongly approve, 21% approve), a rise from 38% last month. Meanwhile, his disapproval is now 25% (9% disapprove, 16% strongly disapprove), marginally down from 31% before. This shift reflects Farage’s growing credibility post-local elections, where his party’s council gains and by-election win have translated into rising public confidence in his leadership credentials.

Voter Blocs: Starmer’s Base Wavers, Farage Solidifies

Starmer’s support from those who voted Labour in 2024 has taken a hit with 53% approving of his leadership, a 11-point drop from 64% in the last poll. In fact, 23% of Labour voters now disapprove (up from 16%), hinting at a growing frustration within his base, possibly linked to criticisms over welfare cuts and mixed messages on economic policy. His strongest support remains among the 25-34 age group, where his approval rating is 50%, a figure still relatively robust but not immune to attrition.

Badenoch’s base, on the other hand, is relatively solid: 55% of 2024 Conservative voters approve of her performance (up slightly from 52% last time), while 14% disapprove. This reflects the party’s struggles to rally its base amid a Reform UK surge but Badenoch’s leadership is not yet driving significant dissent within Tory ranks.

Farage’s support from his own base is rock-solid: 82% of Reform UK voters approve of his performance (up from 75%) and remarkably, only 6% disapprove. Notably, Farage also attracts approval from a meaningful minority of 2024 Conservative voters (59%) and even 40% of Labour voters, underscoring his cross-party populist appeal.

Who Would Make the Better Prime Minister? Starmer and Farage Neck-and-Neck

When asked who would make the better Prime Minister, Starmer and Farage are now effectively tied in public perception: 37% believe Starmer would make the better Prime Minister, while 37% choose Farage. This is a sharp change from the previous poll, where Starmer held a 4-point lead (40% to 36%).

Starmer’s edge has eroded across key demographics. Among Labour voters, 61% choose Starmer (down from 66%), while 25% now say Farage would be better (up from 23%). Farage is dominating among Reform voters (87%) and has also made gains among disaffected Tories, with 59% of Conservative voters saying he’d be the best PM, compared to 25% for Starmer.

Badenoch’s Challenge: Stuck in Third Place

For Badenoch, the picture is challenging. While her approval rating holds steady, her Prime Ministerial credentials lag. Only 28% of respondents say she would make the best PM when paired against Starmer (down from 29%) and 33% prefer her when pitched against Farage (up from 31%). Whilst she performs well amongst the older demographics, Badenoch’s weakness is most visible among younger who prefer the appeal of Farage and Starmer.

The approval ratings and Prime Ministerial preference data underscore a political realignment in progress. Starmer remains competitive but is losing his clear lead; Badenoch is holding her base but failing to expand beyond it and Farage is on the rise, translating local election success into stronger national recognition.

The race for “best Prime Minister” is now a dead heat between Starmer and Farage, something unthinkable just a few months ago. While Starmer retains institutional advantages and international standing, his faltering domestic approval signals trouble ahead. Badenoch’s path to victory looks narrow unless she can recapture disaffected Tory voters now flocking to Reform UK.

Download the data tables for this poll.