Berlin Election Race Remains Tight as AfD Moves into Second behind Die Linke

New Geostrategy polling shows Berlin’s state election remains a highly competitive three-way contest, with left-wing Die Linke narrowly leading the AfD and CDU just one day before voters head to the polls on the 20th of September. The election will determine the composition of the next Abgeordnetenhaus, with voting taking place alongside elections to the city’s twelve district assemblies.

Die Linke remains narrowly ahead in the latest Geostrategy polling for Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the AfD now just one point behind and the CDU a further point back. Geostrategy’s latest poll, conducted between the 14th and 18th of September amongst 1,000 respondents, puts Die Linke on 21%, followed by the AfD on 20% and the CDU on 19%. The Greens stand at 14%, with the SPD on 12%. The BSW is on 5%, while the FDP takes 3% and other parties account for 6%.

The result represents a further tightening at the top of the race. Compared with Geostrategy’s previous poll, Die Linke and the AfD have each gained one point, while the CDU remains unchanged at 19%. The Greens have fallen one point and the SPD two, while the BSW has moved up to the 5% threshold, recording a similar voter intention to its recent result in Saxony-Anhalt.

The CDU’s unchanged 19% is also notable against several other recent polls, which have put the party at or slightly above 20% following a late surge. Geostrategy has not recorded the late movement towards the CDU seen in some other polling series. The latest figures leave the three leading parties separated by just two percentage points, while the SPD remains well behind its 2023 result. The BSW’s 5% also puts it directly on the threshold for representation.

With polling concluding ahead of Sunday’s election, the final Geostrategy figures show a contest in which relatively small movements could alter the order of the leading parties.

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