Can Labour’s Bold Economic Promises Reassure an Impatient and Concerned Electorate?

The Economy

As the UK starts the year with high inflation, slow growth and rising costs, it comes as no surprise that in our latest poll, 59% of respondents cite the economy as one of their top three concerns, well ahead of healthcare (52%) and immigration (45%). With pressure mounting on the Labour government to deliver rapid economic improvements, it’s clear that the economy will not only be an essential issue in the upcoming local elections in May but for the remainder of their time in power.

On the surface, January seemed like a success for Keir Starmer’s party as inflation surprisingly decreased to 2.5%, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook projected the UK to have the fastest growing economy among other major European countries and experts revealed they were optimistic about the UK’s economic future. However, this optimism wasn’t emulated by the general public whose disapproval of Labour’s economic management remains high with 44% of respondents disapproving or strongly disapproving of the government’s handling of the economy so far, while only 19% approve.

Voters don’t seem to have much confidence in the alternatives either, when asked if they trust either the Conservatives, Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats to deliver on the economy, the majority concluded that they did not trust any of them at all. Meanwhile, Labour and the Conservatives remain the joint most trusted party on economic management with 22% selecting them as the most competent. A result which is a lot more damning for the tories who were long viewed as concrete as far as the economy is concerned. This result suggests that while voters are dissatisfied with Labour’s economic policies, the lingering impact of past Conservative failures continues to damage their credibility, particularly the Truss-Kwarteng budget crisis of 2022.

Looking ahead, Chancellor Rachael Reeves announced plans to kickstart the UK economy including promises of a third runway at Heathrow Airport to boost GDP by 0.43% by 2050 and generate £78bn by creating “Europe’s Silicon Valley” between Oxford and Cambridge. A bold series of promises in which the benefits wouldn’t be seen for another 10 years and fails to address the immediate cost-of-living crisis, something that 61% of voters believe the government has handled inadequately. Neglecting short-term improvements over long-term planning could erode what remains of Labour’s economic credibility but it’ll be interesting to see if Reeves’ promises have done anything to reinstill public confidence in next month’s poll.

Healthcare and Immigration

Healthcare ranks as the second most important voter issue, with 52% of respondents listing it among their top three concerns. Ongoing NHS struggles such as staff shortages, waiting lists and funding challenges have fuelled public anxiety, particularly among older demographics who rely heavily on healthcare services. Among voters aged 55 and over, 60% consider healthcare a top priority, making it the most pressing issue for these groups.

Labour has traditionally been seen as the party most trusted on healthcare, yet confidence in its ability to fix the NHS remains uncertain. While 61% of Labour voters prioritise healthcare, concern is also significant among Liberal Democrats (56%) and Conservatives (54%). Labour’s pledges of major NHS investment have yet to reassure the public and patience is wearing thin.

Alongside healthcare, Immigration is another key issue shaping voter intentions, with 45% of respondents listing it as a top concern, highlighting growing public unease over border control. This anxiety is particularly pronounced among older voters (55+), 52% of whom rank immigration as a priority, reinforcing the challenge for Labour as it attempts to strike a balance between enforcement and pragmatism. Reform UK has been the primary beneficiary of this sentiment, with 24% of voters trusting them most to handle immigration, compared to 21% for Labour. The party’s stance is resonating particularly well in regions where immigration concerns outweigh economic or healthcare issues, such as the North East where 82% view it as the most important issue.

While Starmer’s government has pledged to reduce net migration, dismantle smuggling networks and accelerate deportations, public scepticism remains high. If immigration continues to dominate the political debate in the coming months, Labour could face growing defections to Reform UK in key constituencies, further complicating their path to maintaining voter confidence.

Labour faces a critical test in the coming months, while the government has outlined ambitious long-term economic plans, the lack of immediate relief for struggling households threatens to undermine public confidence. At the same time, growing skepticism over Labour’s immigration policies is creating an opening for Reform UK, particularly among older and working-class voters in the Red Wall. With the May local elections fast approaching, Labour must strike a delicate balance between delivering tangible short-term improvements and maintaining its broader vision for economic growth.

Download the data tables for this poll.