Farage Keeps His Lead as Starmer Surges and Badenoch Trails

The latest approval ratings for the UK’s main party leaders reflect a shifting political landscape. Nigel Farage remains the most popular leader, holding a steady approval rating as Reform UK continues to disrupt the traditional party structure. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made notable gains (+6) following a strong week on the international stage, particularly in his handling of the Ukraine crisis. By contrast, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch continues to struggle, making modest gains but failing to establish herself as a dominant opposition figure.

While all three leaders face significant political challenges, the approval trends suggest Starmer is benefiting from his statesmanship, Farage continues to harness anti-establishment sentiment and Badenoch is struggling to define her leadership in the wake of internal party turmoil and diplomatic missteps.

Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer’s approval rating has edged up to 34% (+6), narrowing the gap with his disapproval rating, which now stands at 42% (-2). While this represents a modest improvement, it still highlights ongoing dissatisfaction with his leadership, particularly among older voters.

Labour voters remain his strongest base of support, with 64% approving, up from 56% in the last poll. Notably, the number of Labour voters who are neutral on his leadership has fallen to 20% (-5), suggesting that those previously uncertain about him are beginning to consolidate their support.

However, disapproval remains high among Reform UK voters (83%) and Conservative voters (49%), reinforcing the challenge Starmer faces in appealing beyond his core base. Interestingly, 47% of Green Party supporters now disapprove of Starmer, a sharp 17-point increase since the last poll. This likely reflects frustration from the party’s left flank at his international role and relationship with Donald Trump. This shift may also explain why Conservative disapproval of Starmer has dropped from 59% to 49%, as his approach appeals to some on the centre-right.

Demographically, Starmer performs best among younger voters, with 36% of 18-24s and 46% of 25-34s approving. However, his approval drops significantly among older age groups. Despite this, he has gained support among 55-64-year-olds (+8) and those aged 65+ (+6).

This increase in approval among older demographics coincides with Starmer’s recent diplomatic leadership on the Ukraine crisis. As Donald Trump withdraws US military aid and intelligence-sharing, Starmer has positioned himself as a key figure in maintaining Western unity. He has taken on a leadership role within the EU, bringing European leaders together to reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, while simultaneously acting as a bridge between the EU and Trump, attempting to keep the former US president engaged.

While this international success has bolstered Starmer’s image as a capable statesman, the impact on domestic politics remains uncertain. His rising approval among older voters suggests that his statesmanship may be winning over some sceptics but the broader challenge of uniting his voter base while appealing to disillusioned Conservatives and Greens remains an obstacle.

Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch’s approval rating stands at 30% (+3), with her disapproval slightly decreasing to 28% (-1). However, the largest share of voters (34%) remain neutral, indicating that she has yet to establish herself as a strong and defined opposition leader in the eyes of the public.

Among Conservative voters, 52% approve of her leadership, a solid figure but lower than what previous party leaders have typically enjoyed from their base. Surprisingly, 37% of Labour voters approve of her performance, suggesting that she has some cross-party appeal.

Badenoch remains a relatively unknown quantity among most age groups but her disapproval among older voters (65+) has risen sharply, with 37% now viewing her negatively. This is a worrying sign for the Conservative Party, as older voters have historically been one of its most loyal demographics.

Badenoch has also faced increased scrutiny over her handling of a recent diplomatic row with the US. Following Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, referring to Britain as “some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years,” Badenoch chose to defend Vance, dismissing criticism of his remarks as an “overreaction.” This response has sparked backlash, particularly among Conservative voters who see her stance as undermining Britain’s international standing.

At a time when Keir Starmer is strengthening his image as a statesman on the global stage, Badenoch’s response to Vance’s remarks has reinforced doubts about her leadership credentials, particularly in foreign affairs. With her approval still tepid and her ability to solidify the Conservative base uncertain, she faces an uphill battle in defining her leadership and proving that she can position the party as a serious alternative to Labour.

Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage remains the most popular of the three main leaders, with 38% approving (+1) and 31% disapproving (-2). His net approval rating (+7) is significantly higher than both Starmer (-8) and Badenoch (+2), cementing his growing influence.

Farage commands near-unanimous support among Reform UK voters, with 76% approving of him. However, this is down by 10% from the previous poll, which is maybe due to recent party rifts with popular MP Rupert Lowe. Most interestingly, the majority of Conservative voters (44%) and Labour voters (42%) approve of Farage, showing his ability to garnish support from both the left and the right.

Download the data tables for this poll.