Fractures in the Fortress: Trump and Vance Face Growing Strains Inside Their Own Base

Nearly six months into his second term, President Donald Trump remains the dominant force in American politics but new polling reveals subtle fractures within his base and broader unease across the electorate. While Trump still commands strong loyalty from his 2024 voters, signs of strain are beginning to surface in both intensity and breadth of support. Vice President JD Vance, once a low-profile figure, is now becoming more visible and more divisive as the administration pushes ahead with its ambitious and often disruptive agenda. Against a backdrop of rising prices, controversial policies like the national tariff regime and a dramatic public break with Elon Musk, once a key ally, the administration is navigating a political landscape that is becoming more fractured, generationally inverted and issue-driven.

Trump’s Core Support Remains but Enthusiasm Wavers

President Trump’s overall approval has dipped to 45%, down from 48% last month. While this remains a solid figure in a highly polarised environment, it masks a more revealing decline in intensity. Strong approval among his 2024 voters has dropped from 50% to 46%, suggesting a quiet softening of enthusiasm within his base.

Disapproval has climbed from 49% to 52% overall, with strong disapproval at 37%. Apart from the disparity in support between Democrats and Republicans, gender continues to be a defining battle line in his support. Whilst men approve overall of Trump (52%), just 18% of women strongly approve, while 41% strongly disapprove, underscoring Trump’s continued struggles with female voters.

The correlation between age and approval remains as younger voters strengthen their support whilst older voters harden their opposition. The majority of those aged 18-24 (49%) and 25-34 (59%) approve of Trump’s performance in office, however, among older voters disapproval has gradually risen with age as the majority of those aged 45-54 (52%), 55-64 (56%) and 65+ (58%) disapprove of his performance. This suggests that recent policy decisions including sweeping federal cuts and economic turbulence may be eroding confidence among retirees.

While Trump still enjoys 82% approval among his 2024 voters, the intensity of that support appears to be weakening. This drop in strong approval may reflect growing dissatisfaction with how he is handling specific policy areas, several of which are now dragging down his broader numbers.

How Trump Is Performing on Key Issues

Approval on individual policy areas further reveals where public opinion is shifting. On the economy, Trump is narrowly underwater: 45% approve, while 51% disapprove. Strong approval stands at 23%, well below the 39% who strongly disapprove. Among his own 2024 voters, however, economic confidence remains high, with 83% approving.

Immigration remains a relative strength for the administration. Trump enjoys 54% overall approval, with 34% strongly approving. Among Trump voters, 93% approve, though the issue remains polarising with 63% of Harris voters strongly disapproving.

On national security, Trump records 52% approval overall (31% strong approval), though disapproval is also high, especially among older voters and women. Foreign policy earns 48% approval but strong disapproval outweighs strong approval (36% vs. 24%), reflecting uncertainty around America’s global posture.

Healthcare, education and climate policy stand out as weak points. Trump garners only 44% approval on both healthcare and education and climate policy fares worse at 42%. Strong disapproval on these issues is substantial: 36% for healthcare, 37% for education and 35% for climate. Among young voters (18–24), only 19% strongly approve of Trump’s climate stance, compared to 31% who strongly disapprove.

These figures point to a growing divide between ideological loyalty and issue-based dissatisfaction. Trump voters may still back him overall but concerns about domestic services and long-term environmental planning are weighing on approval intensity.

Vance’s Recognition Rises But So Does Polarisation

Vice President JD Vance continues to consolidate his place in the national conversation but the latest results show that voters are starting to view him negatively. His overall approval now stands at 42%, down from 45% in May, while disapproval has climbed to 49% from 46%.

Among Trump’s 2024 voters, Vance is still well regarded with 77% approving of his performance, though this support has dropped from 82% previously and strong approval has slipped from 47% to 41%. That same drop in intensity seen with Trump is also evident here and likely for similar reasons.

Opposition among Democrats, however, is growing more intense. 83% of Harris 2024 voters now disapprove of Vance, up 2% from the previous month. His vocal support for some of the administration’s most aggressive actions and controversial appearances in Trump’s meetings with foreign leaders appear to be entrenching his image as a highly partisan figure.

With undecided voters remaining at 9%, Vance is no longer an undefined presence. He’s now a polarising national political actor tied to the fortunes and controversies of President Trump.

Donald Trump continues to command loyalty from his 2024 base but cracks are appearing in the form of declining intensity, demographic divergence and dissatisfaction on key issues. His strongest areas remain immigration and national security, yet even here the electorate is sharply divided.

A noteworthy shift is occurring among age groups: younger voters, often more progressive, are now among Trump’s most approving demographics. This inversion may reflect an appetite for bold, populist leadership. Meanwhile, older Americans are cooling, possibly in response to economic disruption, entitlement cuts and mounting policy uncertainty.

JD Vance, while still popular among Trump voters, is experiencing the early stages of polarisation that often accompany increased visibility. Like Trump, he retains strong support from Republicans but draws intensifying disapproval from Democrats.

The recent implosion of Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk has further complicated the picture. Once an ally with deep influence and financial backing, Musk has now become a vocal critic, slamming the administration’s spending plans and calling the tariff policy “super stupid.” This high-profile fallout not only reflects elite fragmentation within Trump’s camp but also reinforces the sense that loyalty, even among insiders, is fraying.

Taken together, the data paints a picture of an administration still firmly in control but facing growing scrutiny, shifting coalitions and a public whose patience may be waning. Heading into the second half of 2025, success will depend not just on energising the faithful but on regaining trust among a broader, more skeptical electorate.

Download the data tables for this poll.