Iceland Heads to the Polls as Voters Separate Negotiations from Membership

New Geostrategy polling suggests Icelanders are narrowly prepared to reopen negotiations with the European Union, while remaining unconvinced about eventual membership.

On the 29th of August, Icelanders will vote in a referendum on whether the country should reopen accession negotiations with the European Union. The referendum is not a vote on joining the EU itself, but on whether negotiations, last suspended in 2013, should resume. Should talks eventually produce an accession treaty, a separate referendum on full membership would be held before Iceland could join. Our findings indicate much stronger support for reopening notifications than for joining the bloc, at least under the current terms.

Geostrategy polling of 296 likely voters highlights a notable distinction in public opinion between reopening negotiations and joining the European Union:

Asked whether Iceland should reopen accession negotiations, 50% of respondents backed a return to talks, compared with 45% who opposed the proposal. Just 6% remained undecided, suggesting that opinion on the immediate question before voters is relatively settled; what this means for any eventual accession to the EU is much less clear.

Our polling found that attitudes were markedly less favourable when respondents were asked about eventual EU membership. Only 34% said they would support Iceland joining the European Union, while 48% opposed membership outright. A further 18% were undecided. Our polling did not reflect any proposed changes or carve-outs to standard membership and so the combined result may reflect a resistance to joining the bloc on present terms, rather than EU accession itself. Rather than signalling growing enthusiasm for membership, the results suggest many voters view reopening negotiations as a pragmatic step that allows Iceland to assess the terms of any future agreement before making a final decision.

Should these findings be reflected in the referendum result, the Icelandic government would receive a mandate to reopen negotiations with Brussels, but not necessarily an endorsement of EU membership itself. Any future accession treaty would still face significant political and public scrutiny before a second referendum, and the outcome of the vote would depend on the course of talks leading up to it.

With only weeks remaining until polling day, the campaign is therefore likely to focus less on the principle of European integration than on the practical question of whether Iceland should return to the negotiating table. Geostrategy’s polling indicates that voters currently distinguish clearly between those two questions, supporting further discussions while reserving judgement on the country’s long-term place within the European Union.