Immigration Disapproval Highlights Rising Popularity of Reform Party and Nigel Farage

Our latest poll exposes a critical vulnerability for the UK Government on immigration, an issue that has consistently polarised public opinion and hampered successive Prime Ministers. A mere 24% of voters approve of the Government’s handling of immigration, while 43% disapprove—a clear indicator of public dissatisfaction. Older voters, who are traditionally more aligned with the Conservative Party, are particularly disillusioned, with only 10% of those over 55 expressing approval of the Government’s performance. Compounding the problem, 44% of Conservative voters and an overwhelming 82% of Reform voters disapprove of the Government’s record on immigration. These figures underscore a deepening crisis of confidence that has directly fuelled the rise of Nigel Farage and the Reform Party, who are increasingly seen as the most credible party to be tough on immigration.

Reform Party Leads on Immigration Solutions

Public frustration with the major parties’ handling of immigration is reflected in perceptions of which party is best equipped to tackle the issue. This latest poll shows that 27% of voters view Reform as the party most capable of stopping illegal boat crossings, placing them well ahead of Labour (18%) and the Conservatives (13%). This 9-point lead over Labour and 15-point lead over the Conservatives highlights a dramatic shift in public trust, particularly on an issue that has come to symbolise governmental competence—or lack thereof.

Reform’s prominence in the immigration debate can largely be attributed to its no nonsense approach on the issue. Nigel Farage, known for his vocal opposition to illegal immigration and lax border controls, has effectively positioned himself as the only leader willing to tackle the issue head-on. With a message that resonates deeply with disaffected voters, Farage has filled a void left by the perceived failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Reform’s rise in vote share, driven by dissatisfaction with the two major parties, marks a significant realignment in the political landscape.

Starmer’s Silence: A Strategic Oversight

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s failure to prioritise immigration in his policy pledges has left the party vulnerable to criticism. While Starmer has focused on other issues, such as the economy and public services, his silence on immigration has allowed opponents to frame Labour as out of touch with public concerns. With only 18% of voters viewing Labour as capable of stopping illegal boat crossings, Starmer’s inaction has created an opportunity for Reform to consolidate its position as the leading party on immigration.

This oversight is particularly damaging for Labour’s prospects among working-class voters, who have long been a key constituency for the party. Immigration remains a pressing concern for many in this demographic, and Labour’s reluctance to engage with the issue risks alienating these voters further, especially in the Red Wall. Reform’s growing popularity among working-class voters and older demographics—who traditionally form the backbone of both Labour and Conservative support—underscores the shifting allegiances driven by immigration discontent.

A Crisis for the Conservatives

The Conservatives face an equally significant challenge. Once seen as the party of law and order, the successive Conservative Government’s perceived failure to control illegal immigration has severely damaged its credibility. With just 13% of voters believing the Conservatives can stop the boats, the party trails far behind Reform and even Labour. This failure is particularly striking given the prominence of immigration in the Brexit referendum, where promises of stricter border controls played a pivotal role in securing Leave votes.

For older voters, who overwhelmingly backed Brexit and have been a loyal Conservative voting bloc, the Government’s inability to deliver on immigration is a profound betrayal. The fact that only 10% of voters over 55 approve of the Government’s performance on immigration highlights the scale of this disillusionment. Many of these voters are now turning to Reform, which offers a clear and unambiguous alternative.

The Reform Surge and Farage’s Popularity

Nigel Farage’s return to the political spotlight has been fuelled by this dissatisfaction. Reform’s lead on immigration solutions and Farage’s unapologetic rhetoric resonates deeply with voters who feel let down by the establishment parties. The party’s focus on stopping illegal boat crossings has become a rallying point for voters frustrated with perceived inaction and incompetence. Farage’s ability to articulate these frustrations has not only boosted his own popularity but has also propelled Reform into the national conversation as a credible alternative to the traditional parties.

Download the data tables for this poll.