Immigration Top Issue For French Voters

47% of the French public in our latest poll now see immigration as the most pressing challenge the country faces. This is felt most among those who voted for Marine Le Pen and her (RN) party in the 2024 French Legislative elections, and amongst those aged 55 and above. Even among the voters who backed the sitting President Emmanuel Macron, over a third (37%) list immigration as their No.1 concern. Those numbers reflect an important shift in French politics and public opinion, raising immigration above what had historically been more pre-eminent issues such as the economy, security, and health care.

The salience of immigration in France has varied in intensity over time but has never completely gone away. Over the past two decades, topics like unemployment, national security and the economy have often competed with or surpassed immigration on the list of French people’s top concerns. The rise of immigration as a top issue in the early 2000s was characterised by the arrival of Jean-Marie Le Pen onto the national scene. His appeal was based on a platform that attributed a range of social ills to supposed mass immigration, but detailed polling at the time indicated that job security, pensions and the European Union’s overreach still mattered more to a majority of the electorate.

The mid-2010s were when immigration issues again began to climb in prominence. The 2015 migrant crisis, when thousands of refugees and migrants flooded Europe seeking asylum, had turned the spotlight squarely on France’s ability to process high levels of immigrants. For a short time, immigration consumed news headlines and conversations in cafés, on talk shows and on social media. Even so, it routinely vied for attention with other domestic news — notably fears of terrorism, after a string of deadly attacks in major French cities, and with more entrenched worries about the economy.

Even so, immigration rarely emerged in national polls as the clear No. 1 concern for voters. A multigenerational conversation about how to absorb new arrivals without taxing public services — which often cantered on generational or ethnic lines — tended to take a back seat to concerns that were more pressing and linked to national security or the labour market. Even at the time of the presidential campaign in 2017, immigration was a popular issue, but unemployment and terrorism had ranked equally or even higher for many French voters.

Our new poll finds that this picture has changed dramatically. With 47% of those surveyed naming immigration the country’s top challenge, a convergence of factors has seemingly pushed it to the surface. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has propelled immigration as a key issue. Le Pen’s insistence on restrictive policies, such as tighter border controls and more selective criteria for immigrants, has resonated strongly with voters who believe that cultural identity, social cohesion and national security are threatened if immigration remains at current or unchecked levels.

The data also shows a pronounced correlation between age and concern about immigration. Voters over the age of 55, who have seen demographic and cultural shifts over decades, are the most doubtful about France’s ability to integrate large numbers of immigrants successfully. Many within this cohort also voice anxieties over protecting what they view as French values, language and customs. This demographic also is inclined to worry about the potential burden on social services, believing that a growing population of newcomers will tax the country’s resources.

That said, the latest poll also highlights that scepticism about current immigration levels is not exclusive to the far right or the older generation. Indeed, more than a third (37 percent) of those saying they had voted for President Emmanuel Macron — a political figure who has traditionally adopted a more centrist and at times even cautiously welcoming approach to immigration — also place it as their top concern. This stat gives a sense of how much the discussion of immigration is seeping into mainstream politics. If the Macron voters still believe in international cooperation, economic progress and social issues, the evidence suggests that they are now increasingly alarmed by the scale and the perceived impact of immigration.

From a historical standpoint, this sort of cross-partisan anxiety about immigration in France is rare. Previous election cycles have shown immigration gaining prominence, but the saliency of the issue has typically subdivided by the party you support. That dividing line looks a lot less fixed today, suggesting that those critical of the immigration system come from across the political spectrum.

Several factors might help explain why immigration now looms over other issues. Lingering concerns in Europe, like the aftermath of earlier migration surges, rising housing costs, residual fears about terrorism and intensifying media coverage of cultural fault lines have fuelled fears that immigration — and the larger questions of integration — was not being handled correctly.

In the coming month ahead all major political leaders in France will have to address voters growing concerns over immigration. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally may only strengthen their hold by framing their message in terms of cultural identity and public safety. Centrist and left-leaning politicians, including President Macron, may therefore be pressured to adapt their platforms, suggesting a stronger hand on immigration without completely neglecting humane treatment of asylum seekers and legal migrants. This tension — between managing the tide of newcomers and respecting historical promises of human rights — may emerge as one of the central battles of French policy.

Download the data tables for this poll.