New Geostrategy polling of likely voters finds Bulgaria’s presidential race remains clearly favourable towards the incumbent president Iliana Iotova. A strong showing for minor candidates benefits Iotova, as both her leading rival, pro-EU reformer Andrey Gyurov and third-place nationalist challenger Kostadin Kostadinov are under pressure from a constellation of smaller parties, with evidence of an increasingly fragmented political landscape. Though a first-place finish seems secure, should these voters coalesce around one of her two rivals in the weeks before the 25th of October election, Iotova may face a more credible electoral challenge going into the run-off election.

Polling conducted from the 4th to 8th of October reached 1,300 respondents and found Iliana Iotova leads Bulgaria’s presidential election race with 41.2% support. Independent candidate Andrey Gyurov ranks second with 20.3%, followed by Kostadin Kostadinov of the nationalist Revival party with 14.5%. Gyurov has previously acted as a caretaker prime minister and was deputy-governor of the Bulgarian National Bank from 2023 to 2026.

The results put Iotova 20.9 percentage points ahead of Gyurov, with the three leading tickets accounting for 76% of total support by likely voters. Further down the list, Ivan Hristanov of the Anti-Corruption Bloc records 5.7%, Radostin Vasilev of MECH 4.3%, and Ivelin Mihaylov of Velichie 2.0%. Other candidates collectively account for 12%, with 3% of voters responding with an intention to support Georgi Dimov, a fringe candidate whose candidacy centres on national sovereignty and opposition to the EU.

A clear lead for Iotova

Iotova’s position is consistent with broader polling trends, in which she has maintained a substantial lead over Gyurov, with Kostadinov generally occupying third place. Geostrategy’s result places the incumbent below the upper-40s to around 50% levels recorded in some other public surveys, while still giving her a considerable advantage over her nearest rival.

Gyurov’s 20.3% places him firmly in second position and leaves a gap of 5.8 points between him and Kostadinov. His candidacy is associated with the pro-European reformist camp. The independent ticket is backed by ‘We Continue the Change’, a liberal-centrist party advocating closer European integration and reform of Bulgaria’s public institutions, alongside a broader coalition known as ‘Democratic Bulgaria’. Voter intention surveys revealed that both Gyurov and third-place Kostadinov are suffering from the presence of competing smaller parties running on similar platforms, with a number of second-choice Gyurov voters preferring Hristanov’s anti-corruption movement. Meanwhile, Kostadinov’s potential vote is threatened by the large number of smaller nationalist candidates who take more or less hardline positions on NATO and EU membership. Support for Ukraine is a particular dividing line between nationalist parties.

Incumbent president Iotova has a background in the traditional centre-left and is supported by the ‘Progressive Bulgaria’ party. Her platform combines support for Bulgaria’s EU and NATO membership with opposition to some military commitments relating to Ukraine. A fragmented opposition divided into liberal and nationalist camps is reflected in her sustained polling lead.

A fragmented contest benefits the incumbent

Our results suggest that the race is structured around a leading incumbent, a pro-European reformist challenger and a nationalist Eurosceptic candidate, with several smaller tickets competing for a more limited share of support. It appears unlikely Iotova will be able to achieve an outright majority in the first round, whilst the second- and third-placed candidates are likely losing votes to a large number of minor parties. Should the Bulgarian electorate prove willing to support the best-placed similar candidate then both Gyurov and Kostadinov could potentially experience surges in support, though it is doubtful these will be significant enough to seriously threaten Iotova’s substantial lead.

Find out more by subscribing to our mailing list below.