Italy’s Justice Referendum Hinges on One Thing: Turnout

Italy is heading toward a decisive moment. On March 22–23, voters will be asked to approve constitutional changes to the justice system, reforms that sit at the heart of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s effort to reshape the country’s institutions.

The proposals would separate the careers of judges and prosecutors, limit what the government sees as excessive prosecutorial power, and introduce new accountability mechanisms. Meloni argues the reforms will speed up trials, restore balance in the courts and modernise a system long criticised for inefficiency.

In our latest poll suggests that the country is deeply divided and that turnout, more than opinion itself, may determine the result. In short: Italians are split, but mobilisation will decide the winner.

In a low-turnout scenario of around 45%, opposition narrowly prevails, with 52% voting “No” against 48% “Yes”. That reflects the scepticism of moderate and left-leaning voters who fear the reforms weaken judicial independence which is an argument championed by opposition leaders such as Elly Schlein.

But if participation rises toward 59%, the outcome changes dramatically. In that case, 53% back the reform and 47% oppose it, a scenario that would favour Meloni’s governing coalition and its ability to mobilise supporters frustrated by slow courts and high-profile corruption cases.

The referendum is fast becoming a proxy battle over Meloni’s broader project to centralise authority and curb institutions she views as obstructive. Among centre-right voters, support is overwhelming. Backers of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, alongside coalition partners Lega and Forza Italia, vote “Yes” at rates above 90% in both turnout scenarios.

On the centre-left, rejection is equally emphatic. Supporters aligned with the opposition bloc led by the Democratic Party oppose the reforms by more than 80%, arguing they risk politicising the judiciary and weakening constitutional safeguards. Beyond party loyalties, the demographic picture is more nuanced.

Younger voters lean against the reform, with around 55% of those aged 18–34 favouring “No” in lower-turnout projections, reflecting broader concerns about civil liberties and institutional checks on power. Older Italians are more receptive: among voters over 65, support for “Yes” reaches roughly 50%, driven in part by anxieties over crime and judicial inefficiency.

There is also a regional split. The industrial north which is Meloni’s strongest territory tilts toward approval in high-turnout scenarios, while southern regions remain more sceptical, where economic hardship often overshadows institutional reform.

All this is unfolding against a tense political backdrop. Meloni has framed the referendum as a “justice revolution”, but critics see it as an attempt to weaken magistrates who have long played a central role in Italian politics. Recent clashes between the government and prosecutors investigating senior officials have only sharpened the conflict.

The debate has also drawn European scrutiny, with concerns in Brussels over rule-of-law standards tied to recovery funding. Protests led by judicial associations have filled squares in Rome and Milan, while Meloni’s approval ratings remain solid but no longer rising, pressured by stubborn living costs and slow growth. Yet the real uncertainty is not preference, it is participation.

Italy’s referendums require a 50% quorum to be valid, a threshold many recent votes have failed to reach. A low-turnout scenario would likely invalidate the referendum altogether, handing a practical victory to opponents. A mobilisation surge, however, could both validate the vote and deliver Meloni a landmark institutional win.

If approved, the reforms could speed up trials and cut chronic court backlogs that weigh heavily on Italy’s economy. If rejected or voided by low participation the setback would expose limits to Meloni’s political reach and energise a fragmented opposition.

For now, the country appears evenly split between those who see the changes as overdue modernisation and those who fear an erosion of judicial independence.

As one takeaway from the poll makes clear: Italians have not made up their minds, but whoever succeeds in getting their voters to the polls may end up reshaping the republic’s legal system for decades.

Download the data tables for this poll.