Leader Approval Ratings in Wales: Starmer Receives a Boost, Farage Holds Ground and Welsh Labour Struggles for Visibility

With the 2026 Welsh Senedd election coming up next year, approval ratings for Wales’ political leaders provide a key insight into shifting voter sentiment. While Nigel Farage remains a significant force, Keir Starmer’s ratings have improved since the last poll but voters continue to disapprove and Welsh Labour’s new leader, Eluned Morgan, is struggling to establish herself. The latest polling also reveals a substantial level of disengagement, with many voters still undecided on who would make the best First Minister.

Keir Starmer: A Slight Bounce

Overall Keir Starmer’s approval ratings remain weak in Wales, with 46% of voters disapproving of his leadership, including a significant 28% who strongly disapprove. However, the Labour leader has experienced a slight bounce since the previous poll with his approval now at 30%, a 3% increase which could reflect his recent show of strong leadership over Ukraine, a move that might turn his turbulent start around.

While Labour retains a strong base, with 53% of past Labour voters approving of Starmer’s leadership, he’s also winning support amongst opposition voters with 10% of Reform voters now approving (up from 2%). Demographically, Starmer performs best among younger voters, with 35% of 18-24s and 44% of 25-34s approving. However, his approval drops significantly among older age groups but he has gained support among 65+ (+5).

Welsh Labour will take some comfort in Starmer’s small improvement but the wider picture remains concerning. While he has gained marginal support from Reform voters and younger demographics, his disapproval remains high and many voters still feel disengaged. Labour’s ongoing NHS reforms and economic policies will need to yield tangible improvements if Starmer hopes to continue his upward trend.

Nigel Farage: The Most Popular

Nigel Farage remains the most popular party leader in Wales, with 35% (up 6%) approving of his leadership, though 38% disapprove, making him the most polarising leader in the poll.

His core support comes from Reform UK voters (84% approval), with notable backing among Conservatives (35%) and younger voters (39% of 25-34s). However, his disapproval among Labour (47%) and Plaid Cymru voters (61%) remains high, reflecting the sharp ideological divide he represents.

Farage continues to position himself as the dominant right-wing voice, capitalising on dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Conservatives. His popularity highlights the growing realignment on the right, as Reform UK cements its position as a challenger to the Conservatives in Wales.

Eluned Morgan: A New Leader Failing to Make an Impact

Welsh Labour’s First Minister, Eluned Morgan, remains largely unknown to voters, with 35% saying they neither approve nor disapprove of her leadership. Her net approval is -6 with 24% approving and 30% disapproving but the lack of strong support even among Labour voters (just 43% approve) is a concern for the party heading into the Senedd elections.

Morgan’s visibility has decreased since the last poll, where 32% were neutral, showing that she is yet to establish herself as a decisive leader. Her approval remains strongest among Labour’s core electorate but her negative ratings among Conservative (38% disapprove) and Reform UK supporters (50% disapprove) suggest that she is struggling to broaden her appeal beyond Labour’s base. If Labour hopes to secure another term in the Senedd, Morgan will need to strengthen her leadership profile and demonstrate clearer policy wins, particularly on key issues such as NHS reform and economic recovery.

Darren Millar: Conservative Struggles Continue

Similar to Morgan, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Darren Millar, faces a recognition problem with 32% of voters remaining neutral on his leadership. Just 19% approve, while 28% disapprove (an increase of 3%), perhaps reinforcing the continued overall weakness of the Conservative Party in the UK at the moment.

Among past Conservative voters, Millar only secures 31% approval, a worrying sign given that previous leaders have typically commanded stronger loyalty from the party’s base. His failure to energise support suggests that the Welsh Conservatives remain adrift, struggling to recover from their losses in the 2024 UK General Election. Millar’s lack of visibility, combined with Reform UK’s growing presence in Wales, poses a serious threat to the Conservatives. If Reform continues to attract disaffected Tory voters, the party risks further collapse in Wales in 2026.

Rhun ap Iorwerth: Plaid Cymru Holding Steady

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth holds a balanced position, with 27% approval and 27% disapproval but a significant 33% remain neutral, indicating that many voters are yet to form an opinion on his leadership.

He maintains strong support among Plaid Cymru voters (69%) and has some crossover appeal among Liberal Democrats (34%) and Labour voters (31%) but his challenge is expanding Plaid Cymru’s relevance beyond its nationalist base. Compared to the last poll, his approval ratings remain largely unchanged. If Plaid Cymru wants to seriously challenge Labour in 2026, Iorwerth will need to define a sharper policy vision and strengthen his public profile in the months ahead.

Who Would Be the Best Leader for Wales?

When asked who would make the best First Minister, voters are deeply divided. Eluned Morgan leads with 29% but this is not a commanding position for an incumbent First Minister. Darren Millar lags behind at 21%, reflecting the Conservative Party’s ongoing struggles in Wales and Iorwerth suffers similar results and lags behind Morgan by 6%. Fascinatingly, without even having a Welsh Reform UK leader announced, 29% said the next Welsh Reform UK leader would make a better First Minister than Morgan, reaffirming their strong performance across the UK and appeal in Wales.

However, a significant 50% of voters say they don’t know who would be best suited to lead Wales, highlighting widespread disengagement from the current political leadership. This lack of enthusiasm for any candidate suggests that the 2026 Senedd election is still highly open, with no leader enjoying dominant public confidence.

The latest polling highlights a leadership void in Welsh politics. Eluned Morgan struggles to assert herself as First Minister, Darren Millar remains largely unknown and while Rhun ap Iorwerth’s support is steady, it lacks momentum.

Labour remains Wales’ dominant party but Starmer’s lukewarm ratings and Morgan’s low visibility present challenges ahead of 2026. The Conservatives face an identity crisis, with Millar failing to energise support, while Plaid Cymru risks stagnation without a stronger policy push.

Reform UK’s rise is the biggest disruptor, drawing disillusioned Tory voters and positioning itself as a right-wing alternative. With half of voters undecided on the best leader for Wales, the next year offers all parties a critical window to sharpen their leadership and policy platforms ahead of the Senedd election.

Download the data tables for this poll.