Marine Le Pen Leads the Pack in Latest French Presidential Poll

Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, is cementing her front-runner status in the run-up to the next French Presidential Election, according to our newest voting intention poll. When asked, “If the first round of the next Presidential Election in France was today and the candidates were as follows, how would you vote?” 32% of respondents select Le Pen—a commanding lead over all other candidates. Notably, her support is strongest among those aged 45–54, reinforcing the notion that her platform resonates powerfully with middle-aged voters who may be growing increasingly disenchanted with traditional centrist and conservative parties.

What makes Le Pen’s showing even more striking is that no other single candidate registers above 10% in the poll. This wide margin places her clearly ahead of a fragmented field that includes established politicians from the center-right Republicans and the center-left Ensemble coalition, as well as left-leaning voices such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise. While this level of fragmentation among her opponents certainly plays in Le Pen’s favour, her ability to consistently garner a solid core of support indicates that many voters now see her as a viable political alternative.

Beyond the first-round question, our poll also tested head-to-head matchups between Le Pen and other leading politicians—scenarios that typically emerge in the second round of French presidential elections. In each of these hypothetical runoffs, Marine Le Pen emerges with a decisive lead. When pitted against Gabriel Attal of Ensemble, she holds a significant margin of 43% to 32%. Against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she soars to a commanding 51% compared to just 17% for the left-wing leader. Even against Xavier Bertrand of The Republicans—a figure who has been touted as a potential unifying candidate for center-right voters—Le Pen leads by 44% to 30%. These results collectively indicate that Le Pen is not just an early favourite but a clear front-runner across a variety of political matchups, reflecting a broad and diverse appeal among different segments of the French electorate.

The reasons behind Le Pen’s strong performance appear multifaceted. She has spent years repositioning her party’s image, shifting from overtly populist rhetoric to a more nuanced blend of sovereignty, social protectionism, and cultural identity politics. By emphasising concerns over cost of living, public safety, and France’s place in the European Union, she has tapped into anxieties shared by a substantial slice of the electorate. Her critique of so-called “elite politics” resonates with voters who feel left behind by globalisation and who see Le Pen as the only candidate promising meaningful change. Additionally, the current government’s perceived shortcomings—whether on economic, social, or security issues—likely fuel the sentiment that an alternative approach is warranted.

Still, political experts caution that a large lead in preliminary polls does not guarantee a final victory. France’s two-round electoral system has historically given moderates and major parties an avenue to unify against more polarising figures in the second round. Le Pen herself experienced this phenomenon in both 2017 and 2022, when a broad coalition coalesced against her National Rally in the runoff. However, if her popularity continues to grow and opposition parties remain divided, the once-unthinkable scenario of Le Pen capturing the presidency becomes increasingly plausible.

Download the data tables for this poll.