Montenegrin Public Opinion on the Ukraine Conflict and Historic Ties with Russia

A new poll of voters in Montenegro reveals that a significant segment of the population believes Russia is likely to win the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to the data, 48% of respondents say Russia will ultimately triumph, while only 11% expect Ukraine to emerge victorious. These perceptions are further reflected in attitudes toward how the conflict should be resolved: 54% think Ukraine should “seek peace, even if that may mean Russia has acquired some Ukrainian territory,” while only 12% believe Ukraine should keep fighting. These findings not only highlight the complexities of public opinion in Montenegro but also showcase the historical ties between the two countries, especially in the realm of tourism and broader cultural affinities.

Historically, Montenegro has shared a notably close relationship with Russia, despite its geographic and cultural intersection between the Balkans and Southern Europe. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Russia offered diplomatic and financial support to Montenegro, aiding its efforts to maintain autonomy in a region frequently marked by shifting alliances and outside influences. Over time, the friendship between the two countries ebbed and flowed, but the bond was never entirely broken. Even as Montenegro pursued a path towards European integration—culminating in its accession to NATO in 2017—significant pockets of Montenegrin society continued to view Russia with respect and admiration.

A key aspect of these ties is tourism. For years, Russian tourists flocked to Montenegrin coastal towns such as Budva, Kotor, and Tivat, attracted by the country’s scenic beauty, relative affordability, and cultural familiarity. Many Russians purchased property along Montenegro’s Adriatic coast, contributing to a real estate boom in the early 2000s and helping fuel the local economy. While Montenegro’s government has joined international sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, these longstanding economic linkages and cultural connections have made the political situation complex. Many Montenegrins maintain personal or business relationships with Russians, and some hold nostalgic views of Russia’s historical support.

The fact that almost half of respondents foresee a Russian victory may stem not only from media coverage or geopolitical concerns but also from ingrained cultural impressions that Russia remains a formidable power. Meanwhile, the preference for a peace deal—even if it entails territorial concessions for Ukraine—reflects a broader yearning for stability and an aversion to further escalation of violence. Given Montenegro’s own history of conflicts and transformations, the desire to avoid prolonged warfare resonates strongly with public sentiment.

Download the data tables for this poll.