Montenegro’s Foreign Policy: Public Opinion on NATO, EU Membership and the War in Ukraine

Montenegro’s foreign policy remains a key point of debate, with public opinion deeply divided on the country’s membership in NATO, its European Union aspirations and its stance on the war in Ukraine. While there is strong support for EU accession, attitudes towards NATO remain polarised and many Montenegrins express uncertainty about their government’s response to international conflicts. These divisions mirror broader political instability, external pressures and the country’s strategic position between East and West.

Our latest poll shows clear generational and partisan splits, with older voters and supporters of the opposition party DPS strongly favouring Euro-Atlantic integration, while younger voters and supporters of ES, remain skeptical of NATO and Western policies. The war in Ukraine has added another layer of complexity to Montenegro’s foreign policy debate, with a large portion of the public remaining neutral on the issue.

Support for NATO: A Divided Electorate

Montenegro’s NATO membership remains one of the most contentious foreign policy issues in the country. While 37% of voters support membership, 32% oppose it and 22% remain neutral. The divisions are evident along political and generational lines. Support is highest among voters of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), with 77% approving of NATO membership. In contrast, opposition is strongest among pro-Serbian parties such as Democratic Montenegro (DCG) and the Democratic Front (DF), reflecting Montenegro’s broader geopolitical divides and the influence of Serbian and Russian narratives within these groups.

Younger voters between the ages of 25 and 34 show the lowest levels of support for NATO, with 28% disapproving however the majority in this age group are unsure with a huge 39% neither supporting nor opposing NATO membership. By contrast, the older generation expresses the most support for NATO membership with 46% of 55-64 year olds and 44% of 65+ backing it. These divisions highlight how NATO remains a politically sensitive topic in Montenegro, particularly as pro-Serbian factions continue to challenge the country’s alignment with Western security structures.

The war in Ukraine has had only a limited impact on public attitudes towards NATO. Only 19% of Montenegrins say the conflict has made them more supportive of membership, while 20% say it has made them less supportive.

Support for EU Membership: Widespread Backing with Some Reservations

Despite political instability and economic challenges, a strong majority of Montenegrins support the country’s bid to join the European Union. A combined 56% of voters favour EU membership, with 41% strongly supporting accession and an additional 15% expressing general support. Opposition remains relatively low, with only 15% opposing EU integration, while a notable 23% remain neutral on the issue.

Support is highest among older voters, ruling party supporters and DPS supporters (86%), reflecting its historical role in leading Montenegro’s European trajectory. These numbers suggest that pro-European sentiment remains a dominant force in Montenegrin politics, with many viewing EU membership as a pathway to economic and political stability.

However, skepticism remains among nationalist and pro-Serbian voters, particularly those who supported Andrija Mandić of the Democratic Front (62% oppose) and Aleksa Bečić of the Democrats (24% oppose). Additionally, concerns about the slow pace of Montenegro’s accession process, the EU’s reform demands and lingering doubts about economic benefits contribute to the 23% of respondents who are neutral on the issue.

The war in Ukraine has influenced some voters’ stance on EU membership, though not dramatically. 20% of respondents state that the conflict has made them more supportive of joining the EU, while 19% say it has made them less supportive. For most Montenegrins, domestic economic conditions and governance challenges remain the primary factors shaping their views on EU accession rather than external geopolitical events.

Montenegro’s Response to the Ukraine War: Widespread Uncertainty and Division

The Montenegrin government’s response to the war in Ukraine has received mixed reactions, with a high level of neutrality among the public. 43% of respondents neither approve nor disapprove of the government’s handling of the crisis, suggesting that many Montenegrins feel detached from the issue or prefer a more non-aligned foreign policy stance.

Among those with a firm opinion, 29% disapprove of the government’s actions, while 15% approve. Support for the government’s stance is highest among DPS voters, where 37% express approval, reflecting their alignment with Montenegro’s pro-Western foreign policy. In contrast, opposition to the government’s approach is strongest among nationalist and pro-Serbian voters, particularly those aligned with the Democratic Front (DF), where 62% disapprove.

Public opinion is similarly divided regarding the European Union’s response to the war. 31% of Montenegrins disapprove of the EU’s handling of the crisis, while 17% approve. A significant 38% remain neutral, highlighting the electorate’s lack of strong engagement with the issue. Many opposition voters view the EU’s response as part of a broader Western strategy that does not necessarily align with Montenegro’s interests. DPS supporters are more favourable (56%) whereas ES voters disapprove (36%).

These attitudes reflect Montenegro’s ongoing struggle to define its foreign policy priorities. While the government has taken a firm stance in support of Ukraine and aligned with EU and NATO sanctions against Russia, a significant portion of the electorate remains unconvinced about the benefits of taking a strong position on the conflict.

Montenegrins’ Views on the War: A Preference for Negotiation Over Prolonged Conflict

When asked what course of action Ukraine should take, 65% of Montenegrins believe that Ukraine should seek peace, even if that means ceding some territory to Russia. This pragmatic approach suggests a widespread belief that prolonged war will only lead to further destruction, regardless of political principles.

In contrast, only 8% believe that Ukraine should continue fighting, even at the cost of ongoing devastation. Across all parties, genders and age groups, Montenegrins believe that Ukraine should seek peace but support for continued fighting is backed by 21% of 55+ year olds and 34% of DPS supporters.

Public perception of the war’s outcome further underscores this realism. 62% of Montenegrins believe that Russia is more likely to win, while only 12% think Ukraine will prevail. This belief is strongest among pro-Serbian voters, though uncertainty remains high even among those who support European integration. 26% of respondents say they do not know who will win, reflecting broader public skepticism about the war’s trajectory and potential resolutions. The only group which believes that Ukraine will win the war are those who support the DPS.

These views suggest that while the Montenegrin government has aligned itself with Western allies in support of Ukraine, public sentiment remains mixed. Many Montenegrins, particularly those with strong historical and cultural ties to Serbia, see Russia as having a stronger position in the conflict and believe that Ukraine may ultimately be forced to negotiate a settlement.

Montenegro’s foreign policy remains a complex and divisive issue, with strong support for EU membership but lingering skepticism toward NATO, Ukraine and Western geopolitical positioning. While the ruling coalition has prioritised European integration, public opinion reflects a nation still grappling with competing influences from the West, Serbia and Russia.

The government’s challenge moving forward will be to maintain its pro-European trajectory while addressing domestic skepticism, particularly among older and nationalist voters who remain wary of Western alliances. Despite firm governmental alignment with Ukraine and NATO, a large segment of the public favours a more neutral stance, particularly in how Montenegro navigates the war in Ukraine and its broader security commitments.

As Montenegro continues its EU accession process and defines its role in international affairs, it must work to unify the electorate behind a shared vision of security, economic stability and diplomatic strategy. The success of this effort will depend not only on government policy but also on the ability to bridge domestic divisions and reassure skeptical voters about the long-term benefits of Montenegro’s pro-Western orientation.

Download the data tables for this poll.