With slightly more than a month until the next Spanish general election, the People's Party (PP) leads Spain's governing Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) by 10.5 percentage points, while Vox records 21.3%, according to a new Geostrategy poll of likely voters.

Conducted between 12 and 16 October amongst 1,400 likely voters, our survey puts the PP on 34.3%, followed by the PSOE on 23.8% and Vox on 21.3%. The left-wing Sumar alliance trails on 6.8%, while Podemos scores 3.1%.

Our findings indicate a relatively strong showing for the right and centre-right compared to general trends in October polls, with voting intention at the top end of the recent range for the PP. The PSOE suffers from competition with left-leaning separatist parties and the Sumar alliance. Vox looks likely to considerably outperform their 2023 12.4% result in this election.

Regionalist and smaller parties mostly compete for votes for the centre-left, though there are exceptions. Our poll finds The Catalan Alliance (Aliança Catalana), a pro-independence party known for its anti-immigration platform, on 2.1% of the national vote, potentially making it the largest regionalist party, though the seat allocation system tends to favour the small, traditionally left-wing separatist parties including Junts, EH Bildu and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Because of their relatively small voter base, the results of regional and minor parties are within the likely margin of error for our poll (approximately 2%).

The election comes amidst prolonged parliamentary deadlock and growing difficulties for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's coalition in maintaining support across its parliamentary partners. The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, faces the question of whether it can assemble a governing majority, potentially with Vox, while the left must contend with divisions between competing parties and regional interests, since Spain's constituency-based proportional electoral system allows such parties to play an important role in seat allocation and government negotiations.

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