Reform UK Gains Momentum as Labour and Conservatives Struggle in UK and Welsh Senedd Polling

New polling reveals a dramatic shift in UK voter sentiment, while Reform UK continues to occupy the right and outperform the Conservatives, Labour remains the leading party but has seen a significant decline in support since its 2024 General Election victory. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru (18%) is emerging as a strong challenger to Labour (19%) in Wales, while Reform UK’s (18%) growing influence extends beyond Westminster to the Welsh Senedd.

#### General Election Voting Intentions: Labour Falls, Reform Overtakes Conservatives

If a UK General Election were held tomorrow, our latest poll reveals that Labour would secure 23% of the vote, a sharp decline from the 33.7% they won in 2024. While still in the lead and opinion on Prime Minister Keir Starmer improving over the last two weeks, this result is very underwhelming considering his party’s landslide victory last July.

The Conservatives continue their downward spiral, polling at just 16%, significantly lower than the 23.7% they received in 2024. This steep decline reflects ongoing dissatisfaction with the party’s leadership and direction, with many former Conservative voters seeking alternatives.

The power vacuum being left by the UK’s struggling major parties has been filled by Reform UK who emerge as the largest net winner in this poll, rising to 21%, a 6.7% rise from their 2024 result. This surge means Reform has now overtaken the Conservatives, making it the second-largest party and most popular party on the right. The data shows that Reform’s rise is largely fueled by disillusioned Conservative voters, with 20% of Reform’s current supporters having backed the Tories in 2024. However, 9% of Labour’s 2024 voters have also shifted to Reform, highlighting the party’s appeal to a broader electorate.

Finally, the Liberal Democrats have dropped to just 6%, compared to the 12.2% they secured in 2024, suggesting that their ability to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction remains limited.

#### Welsh Senedd Voting Intentions: Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform Battling it out

In Wales, although it’s early, the 2026 Senedd elections are shaping up to be highly competitive. Labour leads with 19%, a significantly weaker position than their UK-wide figure and well below their performance in Wales during the 2024 General Election (37%).

Plaid Cymru follows closely at 18%, putting them in direct competition with Labour. Their continued strength suggests that Welsh voters may be increasingly open to nationalist alternatives, particularly as discontent with Westminster politics grows.

The Conservatives have fallen to just 14%, continuing their national trend of declining support. Meanwhile, Reform UK has secured 18% in Wales, replicating its UK-wide gains by attracting former Conservative voters. The data shows that 13% of Reform’s Welsh supporters previously backed the Conservatives, confirming that Reform is rapidly absorbing the Tory base.

Plaid Cymru appears to be the most stable party, with 90% of their 2024 voters sticking with them, while Labour’s lower polling suggests that it is not immune to shifting allegiances.

#### Where Are Reform’s New Voters Coming From?

One of the most striking trends in the latest polling is the continued rise of Reform UK at the expense of the Conservatives. Nationally, 20% of current Reform supporters voted Conservative in 2024, while in Wales, 13% of Reform’s voters previously backed the Tories. Beyond the traditional right-wing base, 9% of Labour’s 2024 voters have also defected to Reform, indicating the party’s appeal to those disillusioned with both major parties.

Men (24%) are more likely to support Reform UK than women (19%) and the party has also gained significant traction among older voters, with 27% of those aged 45 and over now supporting Reform.

This trend highlights a fundamental shift in the right-wing political landscape. The Conservatives, once the dominant force on the right, are rapidly losing ground, with many former Tory supporters now identifying with Reform UK’s more hardline stance on immigration, governance and national identity. Nigel Farage’s popularity has undoubtedly played a key role in driving these gains, while new Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s slow-burn approach yet to rebuild Tory support.

For Labour, the results present a potential warning. While the party remains ahead in the polls, its support has fallen by more than 10% since the 2024 election. This suggests that Labour’s victory last year was driven more by an anti-Tory sentiment than by strong enthusiasm for Keir Starmer’s leadership. If these trends continue, Labour could struggle to maintain its voter base, particularly among those feeling economically left behind.

These findings suggest that the UK’s political landscape is undergoing a major transformation. Reform UK is no longer just a protest party but more of a serious electoral force, surpassing the Conservatives in key areas and making gains across different voter demographics.

Labour still holds the top position but its declining support and the growing discontent reflected in Welsh polling indicate that it cannot afford to be complacent. With the 2026 Welsh Senedd election on the horizon, the question is whether Labour can maintain its lead, or whether voters will continue to turn toward new alternatives.

Download the data tables for this poll.