Reform UK Solidifies Lead as Labour Stumbles and Conservatives Collapse

Reform UK has once again emerged as the frontrunner in the latest voting intention poll, continuing its rapid ascent with 30% of the national vote share. Although this represents a slight dip from the 31% it achieved in the previous poll, it still places Nigel Farage’s party ahead of both Labour (24%) and the Conservatives (20%), reinforcing the narrative that Reform is now the dominant force in British politics.

Labour has slipped three points since the last poll, a sharp reversal that comes amid growing unease within the party’s traditional base. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have fallen even further into electoral freefall, shedding another two points. The Liberal Democrats have gained some modest ground, climbing to 12%, while the Greens also improved slightly to 8%.

The result confirms what has been apparent since Reform UK’s local election surge: Farage’s insurgent populist movement has fractured the political status quo and redrawn the electoral battlefield. As support drains away from the two main parties, Reform’s ability to attract support across age groups, regions and former partisan loyalties is giving it the kind of national presence once reserved for Labour and the Tories.

#### The Fallout from Labour’s Rhetoric on Immigration

Labour’s support has fallen from 27% to 24% since the last poll and this decline appears to be more than just voter fatigue. The party has come under heavy criticism following Keir Starmer’s comments on immigration. In a recent speech, Starmer warned that Britain risked becoming “an island of strangers”, a phrase that drew immediate comparisons to Enoch Powell’s infamous 1968 “rivers of blood” speech. Starmer’s speech has seen backlash from those within his party including Labour MP Sarah Owen who warned that the party was “chasing the tail of the right,” risking a descent into divisive politics that alienates their left base.

This fallout has likely contributed to Labour’s fall in the polls. Starmer’s party is now retaining only 69% of its 2024 vote, down from 70% in the last wave. While 14% of Labour’s previous voters have defected to Reform UK, a further 7% have moved to the Liberal Democrats. These shifts suggest that Labour is not only losing support from voters frustrated with its economic messaging but also from those deeply uncomfortable with its rightward turn on immigration.

This erosion is especially acute among younger voters. Labour’s support among 18–24s has dropped four points to 24%, behind Reform’s 28%. It suggests Starmer’s attempts to outflank the right on immigration have backfired, alienating parts of Labour’s left-liberal coalition while failing to prevent defections to Farage.

Reform’s Cross-Party Breakthrough

Reform UK’s strength lies in its growing cross-party appeal and near-perfect voter retention. The party now retains 97% of its 2024 voters, up from 95% last month, with virtually no defections. It has also increased its share of former Labour voters to 14% (up from 12%).

Reform’s demographic reach continues to broaden. Among 18–24s, the party leads all others with 28% support, which is the same as last month but significantly higher than either Labour (24%) or the Conservatives (22%). Among voters aged 55–64, Reform commands 37% of the vote and among over-65s it holds a solid lead with 32%. This generational spread challenges assumptions that Reform is simply a party for older, rural voters.

The party’s populist platform, focused on slashing immigration, opposing Net Zero, cutting taxes and dismantling diversity and inclusion policies, has resonated with both disaffected working-class voters and younger anti-establishment groups.

The Conservatives’ Collapse Continues

The Conservatives have dropped to just 20%, falling two points from the previous poll. Kemi Badenoch’s party retains 70% of its 2024 voters, which is up 2% but nowhere near the loyalty of Reform UK supporters. Meanwhile 22% have defected to Reform UK (down from 27%). The Tories are also losing ground among every age group, including their traditional strongholds among older voters. Even among the over-65s, Reform now leads the Conservatives by 9 points (32% to 23%).

The party’s poor performance in the local elections, losing all 15 councils it was defending has intensified internal unrest. Badenoch’s cautious strategy has failed to stem the Reform tide and dissatisfaction among MPs is mounting. Many Conservative voters now see Reform as the truer voice of conservative values, particularly on immigration and cultural identity. Without a clear policy reset or a more assertive electoral message, the Conservatives risk further irrelevance as Reform continues to erode their base.

The latest polling confirms again that the UK is in the midst of a deep political realignment. Reform UK is no longer a fringe threat, it is now the leading party in national polling, with a growing voter base drawn from both the left and right.

Labour’s attempt to harden its immigration stance, likely designed to neutralise Farage’s appeal, appears to have backfired, alienating liberal and progressive voters without stemming defections to Reform. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are in collapse. Their inability to articulate a compelling post-Brexit, post-Boris agenda has left them exposed to a populist challenger that increasingly dominates the narrative on the right.

Unless Labour and the Conservatives can recalibrate quickly and convincingly, Reform UK may do more than disrupt the next general election, it could redefine British politics entirely.

Download the data tables for this poll.