Reform UK Surges Ahead in Wales as Labour Struggles to Maintain Lead

Latest Polling Reveals Voter Realignment in General Election and Senedd Preferences

Wales is undergoing a dramatic political shift, with new polling data showing Reform UK overtaking Labour and the Conservatives to become the leading party in Westminster voting intentions. Just months after Labour’s landslide General Election victory across the UK, their dominance in Wales appears to be rapidly eroding. Reform’s momentum is clear, driven by disillusionment with the two traditional parties and a desire for bold change. However, when attention turns to the Welsh Senedd, the picture becomes more fragmented. Reform underperforms in the devolved context, with Labour and Plaid Cymru benefiting from higher levels of voter engagement and party loyalty. With the Senedd elections set for next year, the Welsh political landscape is poised for a volatile and unpredictable contest.

Reform UK Leads in Wales as Labour Support Slips

Latest General Election Voting Intentions Show Major Realignment

Reform UK has surged to the top of the polls in Wales, overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives in General Election voting intention. The latest data shows Reform polling at 26%, a significant increase from the 14.3% they received in the 2024 General Election, a gain of nearly 12%. This places them ahead of Labour, who now sit at 24%, down nearly 10 points from their 2024 result of 33.7% and the Conservatives, who have fallen even further to 19%, compared to 23.7% in the last election.

Reform’s rise is largely driven by former Conservative voters: 23% of their current support in Wales comes from people who voted Conservative in 2024. However, they are also drawing voters from across the spectrum, including 12% from Labour and 13% from the Liberal Democrats. Labour, while still retaining 65% of their 2024 voter base, have lost the most of their base out of the main UK political parties. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are holding on to just 72% of their previous vote share.

Unsurprisingly, Plaid Cymru is polling at 15% in Wales, far higher than their UK 2024 performance of 0.7%. They also have one of the more stable bases with 81% of their 2024 voters remaining loyal. The Liberal Democrats have dropped to just 8%, compared to 12.2% in 2024, with the Greens also at 8% but holding on to 87% of their previous voters, showing strong loyalty from a small base.

These figures suggest a dramatic realignment in Welsh politics, with Reform overtaking Labour and the Conservatives to become the dominant party on the right whilst eating into Labour’s support on the left. Reform’s rapid gains reflect widespread disillusionment with traditional parties and growing appeal among older voters and working-class communities, particularly those disaffected by Westminster politics.

Reform Trails Labour and Plaid Cymru But Underperformance Likely Due to Low Enthusiasm for Devolved Politics

When it comes to the Welsh Senedd elections, the landscape shifts slightly and while Reform UK is gaining momentum nationally, this momentum has yet to carry on to the devolved context. Reform UK, despite leading in Westminster intentions, drops to 20%, putting them in third behind Labour and Plaid Cymru, both on 22% and the Conservatives in second on 21%.

One key reason may be a lack of enthusiasm for the Senedd itself among Reform voters. The data shows that only 52% of Reform’s 2024 General Election voters say they are “certain to vote” in a Welsh Senedd election, compared to 86% of Green voters, 71% of Plaid Cymru, 69% of Conservatives and 61% of Labour supporters and 70% of Conservatives. In fact, Reform UK voters are the least likely to vote with 11% indicating they will either probably or definitely not vote in the next Welsh Senedd election, followed by Labour with 5% indicating this. Reform’s base in Wales is motivated by national issues such as immigration, cost of living and governance in Westminster rather than the devolved Welsh political agenda. This is reflected in the lower level of “5 out of 5” voting certainty among Reform supporters compared to their Westminster numbers.

Labour’s standing in the Senedd race mirrors their UK-wide trend: weaker than in 2024 and under pressure from both Plaid and Reform. They are down significantly from their 40% result in the 2021 Senedd election, now sitting on just 22%. What’s even more alarming is that they only retain 57% of their 2024 voters, which is the weakest out of all parties, suggesting a weak core voter base.

Plaid Cymru continues to demonstrate consistency and strong loyalty. Their 22% places them in joint first and they retain 84% of their 2024 voters. This makes Plaid the most stable party in Wales and potentially best positioned to capitalise if Labour continues to slide or if Reform fails to convert national momentum into regional gains.

The Conservatives poll at 21%, which is slightly higher than their General Election support in Wales (19%), suggesting a more committed base in the devolved space. However, they retain only 70% of their previous voters, with significant losses to Reform (16%).

Notably, the Greens are polling at 7%, holding on to 98% of their 2024 voters, impressive given their smaller base and the Liberal Democrats trail at 6%.

Taken together, the Senedd polling suggests that voter motivation, not just support, is shaping the race. While Reform may lead nationally, lower turnout potential in devolved elections could hold them back. Conversely, Plaid’s voter loyalty and strong ground game may make them a more significant threat to Labour than Reform in the 2026 Senedd contest, especially if turnout remains a differentiator.

The latest polling confirms that Wales is no longer a predictable Labour stronghold. Reform UK’s ascension to first place in General Election voting intentions highlights a broader disillusionment with the political status quo and the growing appeal of populist alternatives. However, when it comes to the Welsh Senedd, enthusiasm and turnout potential make all the difference. Reform’s momentum slows as Labour and Plaid benefit from more engaged and loyal voter bases.

As the 2026 Senedd election approaches, all parties will need to reckon with a shifting electorate that is both more volatile and less forgiving. Labour’s lead is gone, the Conservatives are in retreat and Plaid and Reform are emerging as serious contenders, each in very different ways. Whether Reform can build on its national gains to challenge in devolved politics will depend on how effectively it can mobilise its base and whether Labour can re-energise a movement that seems to be losing momentum fast.

Download the data tables for this poll.