Reform UK Surges as Conservative Vote Continues to Crumble, Labour Holds Narrow Lead

The latest voting intention poll shows the Conservatives continuing to bleed support, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surging to 25%, overtaking the Tories (32%). Labour remains in the lead at 27% but its grip on the electorate is far from secure, with signs of voter disillusionment. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats sit at 12%, with the Greens polling at 7%.

These figures mark a significant shift in the UK’s political landscape since the 2024 general election, where Keir Starmer’s Labour secured a landslide victory, albeit with a historically low vote share. The Conservative collapse is accelerating, with 15% of their 2024 voters now backing Reform UK, a trend that could redefine the right-wing vote in the UK.

Labour: A Narrow and Fragile Lead

Despite facing backlash after winning a landslide victory last July, Labour remains the most popular party with 27% support, however, their support remains fragile. The party has retained 74% of its 2024 voters but a small but significant number have defected, notably 12% to Reform UK, 5% to the Liberal Democrats and 5% to the Conservatives.

Labour’s strength is concentrated among younger voters, with 39% of 18-24s and 44% of 25-34s backing the party. However, the party’s appeal weakens among older demographics, particularly those over 55, where Reform UK and the Conservatives remain dominant. Labour’s challenge now is not just maintaining its lead but re-energising a voter base that is drifting away to alternative parties or into political disengagement.

Conservatives in Freefall as Reform UK Gains Momentum

At 23%, the Conservatives are struggling to hold onto their traditional base. While they still retain 78% of their 2024 voters, 15% of their support has shifted to Reform UK, which has now overtaken them with 25% of the vote overall. The Tories have also lost small numbers of voters to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens but it is the rise of Reform UK that poses the greatest existential threat to the party.

Nigel Farage’s party is picking up disillusioned right-wing voters who feel abandoned by the Conservatives on immigration, crime and economic policy. The poll indicates that Reform is strongest among 45-64-year-olds, where their support ranges from 27-33%. If this trend continues, the Conservatives could face their worst electoral performance in modern history, with Reform UK positioning itself as the true opposition to Labour.

Demographic Divides

Reform UK has emerged as the dominant right-wing force among younger voters, securing 18% of 18-24s and 12% of 25-34s, a significant shift for a party that was previously viewed as a bastion of older, Brexit-aligned voters. However, Labour remains the most popular party among younger demographics by a significant margin, while the Greens also perform well, with 13% of 18-24s backing them.

Among older voters (65+), the Conservatives maintain their traditional lead at 28% but Reform is closing in fast with 27%. This suggests that Reform UK is not just a protest party but a serious contender for the right-wing vote in future elections.

Gender divides also paint an interesting picture:

• Among men, Labour leads with 28%, ahead of Reform UK at 26% and the Conservatives at 23%.
• Among women, Labour is slightly ahead at 26%, with the Conservatives close behind at 22% and Reform trailing at 22%.

A Three-Way Contest Takes Shape

This poll confirms that the UK is entering a new political era, with the Conservatives in freefall, Labour holding a fragile lead and Reform UK rising as a serious electoral force. If current trends continue, the next election could become a three-way battle rather than a traditional two-party contest.

For the Conservatives, the challenge is clear: they must stop the exodus to Reform UK, or risk becoming irrelevant. For Labour, the key question is whether it can maintain its lead while preventing further defections to smaller parties. And for Reform UK, the opportunity is bigger than ever, to consolidate its support and overtake the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour. With the next general election still some way off, these numbers set the stage for one of the most unpredictable political battles in decades.

Download the data tables for this poll.