The governing Direction – Social Democracy (Smer) party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Robert Fico, has taken the lead in the latest Geostrategy.com poll of voting intentions in Slovakia, although the opposition Progressive Slovakia (PS) remains within striking distance.

The poll, conducted between 19 and 23 October amongst 1,325 likely voters, puts Smer on 21.2%, followed by PS on 18.0%, giving Fico's party a 3.2-point advantage. The right-wing Republika movement places third with 10.4%, followed by the Slovakia movement on 9.0%. Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) receives 7.4%, while Voice – Social Democracy (Hlas) records 5.9%. The Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) stands at 5.3%, with the Democrats on 5.2%. The centre-right opposition parties appear to be losing votes to more hardline challengers in Republika and Fico’s 2023 coalition partners, the Slovak National Party (SNS).

Geostrategy's findings broadly reflect a competitive contest between Smer and PS. PS have generally occupied the lead position in recent polling. However, the latest figures give Smer a clearer advantage than the near deadlock suggested by much of the wider polling picture. Republika also remains a significant third force, although its 10.4% is somewhat below its stronger recent results and its potential as a coalition partner is untested.

The figures point to considerable fragmentation, with eight parties or movements reaching the 5% parliamentary threshold. The governing coalition's three constituent parties, Smer, Hlas and the SNS, collectively receive 31.2%; Republika's 10.4% could prove important in determining the prospects for a new governing arrangement, though a hypothetical united opposition front between social democratic and liberal conservative parties, with the support of minority and regionalist parties, may still beat the ruling coalition.

With neither major political camp commanding a clear majority independently, coalition negotiations are likely to remain central to the outcome of the next parliamentary election, scheduled by September 2027 at the latest.

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