The Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) remains the largest party in the Republika Srpska (RS) entity, but the latest Geostrategy poll points to a substantially more competitive legislative election, with Pokret Sigurna Srpska (PSS) emerging as a serious rival.

The poll, conducted between 31 August and 4 September among 850 respondents, puts SNSD on 28.3%, followed by PSS on 23.7% and the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) on 18.5%. Za pravdu i red receives 9.5%, while SP-Demos is on 5.0%. SPS and United Srpska each record 4.0%, and DNS-NPS receives 2.0%. Bosniak parties collectively account for 5.0%.

SNSD's position is considerably weaker than at the previous National Assembly election in 2022, when it won 34.63% of the vote and 29 of the assembly's 83 seats. SDS received 14.95% and the then-independent PDP 10.30%. Among the smaller parties, Za pravdu i red won 4.93%. The emergence of PSS has since altered the opposition's electoral balance. Research in April 2026 put SNSD on 27.1%, PSS on 17.9% and SDS on 16.6%.

Geostrategy’s latest figures therefore show little change in SNSD's support, but a substantial increase for PSS and further growth for SDS, as well as an increase in support for Za pravdu i red.

PSS is led by Banja Luka mayor Draško Stanivuković, incorporates PDP and other smaller political organisations, and has become a focal point of opposition. PSS and SDS have agreed to cooperate on candidates for the presidency of RS and other executive positions, though they are contesting the National Assembly election separately.

The combined PSS and SDS vote share stands at 42.2%, well ahead of SNSD's 28.3%. However, this does not translate directly into a 42.2% opposition bloc in the National Assembly: PSS and SDS are competing for votes independently, while Za pravdu i red and several smaller parties could also play an important role in determining the eventual distribution of seats.

The election follows a period of significant political upheaval in the Serb entity. SNSD leader Milorad Dodik was removed from the presidency in 2025 following his conviction and subsequent ban from holding political office; SNSD nevertheless retained the presidency when its candidate Siniša Karan defeated SDS-backed Branko Blanuša in the subsequent early election, with a partial rerun confirming Karan's victory. Dodik remains the central figure in SNSD and the party continues to dominate the political establishment in RS.

The new polling nevertheless suggests that its electoral advantage has narrowed considerably since 2022. With PSS now polling only 4.6 points behind SNSD and SDS a further 5.2 points behind PSS, a three-way contest is emerging. The National Assembly election will be held on 4 October 2026, simultaneously with elections in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.