Social media plays a crucial role in shaping political narratives, mobilising voters and influencing public opinion.

As Wales approaches the 2026 Senedd elections, leadership approval ratings offer insight into voter sentiment. While no leader enjoys overwhelming support, Nigel Farage emerges as the most popular, while Keir Starmer and the leaders of Welsh Labour and the Conservatives face significant challenges.

Nigel Farage

Farage is the most popular leader in Wales, with 29% approval (9% strongly approve, 20% approve). His core support comes from Reform UK voters (74%), younger voters (44% of 18-24s, 35% of 25-34s) and Conservatives (29%), signaling potential crossover support.

Keir Starmer

Despite his 2024 landslide victory, Starmer faces deep unpopularity in Wales, with 50% disapproving of his leadership, including 35% who strongly disapprove. While he retains Labour’s core base (72% approval) and some strong backing from younger voters (50% of 25-34s approve), his standing among older demographics is dire, with 52% of over-65s strongly disapproving. Even among left-leaning voters, Plaid Cymru (58%) and Green (55%) supporters disapprove of him, raising concerns about Labour’s ability to energise its base in 2026.

Eluned Morgan

As Wales’ new First Minister, Eluned Morgan has yet to establish strong public recognition, with 32% of voters neutral and 34% disapproving. She enjoys moderate support among Labour voters (45%) and younger demographics (33% of 18-24s) but lacks broader appeal. Labour will need to boost her visibility if she is to be an asset in 2026.

Darren Millar

The new Welsh Conservative leader faces a major recognition issue, with 32% of voters neutral and only 33% approval among his own party’s voters. His strongest backing comes from 25-34-year-olds (42%) but beyond that, his ratings remain weak. With the Welsh Tories struggling after their 2024 losses, Millar’s low profile suggests they will find it difficult to regain ground against Labour and Reform UK.

Rhun ap Iorwerth

Plaid Cymru’s leader receives 25% approval and 25% disapproval, with a high 33% neutral rating, indicating limited public engagement. He is backed by 57% of Plaid Cymru voters, 55% of Liberal Democrats and 34% of Labour supporters, but disliked by 34% of Reform UK voters. His challenge will be broadening Plaid Cymru’s appeal beyond its nationalist base.

Farage’s strong approval among Reform UK and Conservative voters positions him as a growing force in Welsh politics. Meanwhile, Starmer’s widespread unpopularity threatens Labour’s dominance and Eluned Morgan’s low visibility could weaken the party further. For the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, both leaders need to increase recognition and articulate a clear vision to remain competitive in 2026.

Download the data tables for this poll.