Starmer’s Support Slides Sharply as Public Confidence Ebbs

New GeoStrategy poll shows a collapse in approval rating and waning trust that Labour’s can turn the country around. Barely a month after GeoStrategy’s September poll suggested Keir Starmer still retained some level of support, the latest poll reveals a startling reversal. Within weeks, the government’s approval has sagged, confidence in Labour’s competence has faltered, and the national mood has soured dramatically. The findings — from our latest poll show the Prime Minister’s fastest slide in public support since taking office.

Approval Implosion: From Patience to Pessimism

Starmer’s job performance rating has plunged. Only 32% approve of how he is handling his role as Prime Minister, while 55% disapprove — a net approval of –23 points, down 15 points from last month’s poll. In September, Labour strategists could still claim a “settling-in period” effect. That explanation no longer holds. The drop is driven by a sharp loss of confidence among 2024 Labour switchers and middle-income voters who now question whether the government can deliver the reform agenda it promised. The free responses from the poll describe a Prime Minister “tired,” “hesitant,” and “not in control of events.” The contrast with last summer’s optimism is striking.

Directionless Britain

Only 24% of Britons now believe the country is heading in the right direction, while nearly six in ten (58%) say it is on the wrong track. The figure has worsened by nearly ten points since September, suggesting a rapid deterioration in mood. That pessimism cuts across class and region. Even among Labour voters, 41% agree that Britain is moving in the wrong direction — a figure that would have been unthinkable a month ago. Underlying that sentiment is a perception that the government has not defined what “Starmerism” actually means. Without a clear reform story or visible delivery, the Labour leadership risks being trapped in what one former Downing Street adviser calls “a competence vacuum — neither bold nor effective.”

Confidence Erodes in Government Competence

Confidence in the government’s ability to “address the needs of the British people” has collapsed to 33%, with 63% saying they are not confident — including 44% who are “not at all confident.” This figure is particularly damaging because it mirrors mid-term levels typically seen after several years in office, not the first. It suggests that Starmer’s administration has lost its post-election grace period far faster than expected. A senior Labour backbencher privately described the results as “a canary in the coal mine,” warning that the public no longer distinguishes between inherited problems and new failings.

Leadership League Table: Farage and Badenoch Rise

Our favourability tracker reveals a reshuffling of the political hierarchy. While Starmer remains better known than his rivals, his net favourability has fallen to –19, compared to –7 for Nigel Farage and –10 for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. Farage’s steady recovery continues: 39% view him favourably (up three points), including strong showings among working-class men and older voters disillusioned with both major parties. Badenoch’s recognition is climbing, with 36% now able to rate her — a crucial improvement for a leader still defining her profile. Chancellor Rachel Reeves fares worst of all senior politicians, with a –31 net rating, dragged down by perceptions of a struggling British economy.

The Issue Breakdown: Economy, Immigration, NHS, Crime

Across every major policy area, confidence in the government’s performance has deteriorated since last month.

• Economy: Just 14% think Starmer is handling it well; 41% say badly.
• Immigration: 11% well, 55% badly — the steepest negative of all categories.
• Healthcare NHS: 17% well, 48% badly, as waiting-list frustrations persist.
• Crime and public safety: 15% well, 45% badly — a symbolic reminder of Labour’s vulnerability on law-and-order messaging.

In each case, the net rating is now between –27 and –44, with declines of 5–10 points from September. That uniform deterioration indicates a broader credibility issue rather than a single policy failure.

The Mood of the Nation: ‘Broken Britain’ Endures

Perhaps the most telling statistic of all: 63% of respondents agree that Britain is a “broken country.” Only 21% disagree. It is a sentiment that transcends past and current party vote, geography, and class — a deep national malaise that successive governments have failed to address. When even a majority of Labour voters share that diagnosis, it becomes not merely a slogan but a governing verdict. Analysing the free text responses from the poll they capture a tone of weary frustration. Phrases like “nothing’s changing,” “same old politics,” and “tired faces” recur across demographic groups.

The Peril of Political Gravity

What makes this poll significant is not just the numbers, but the speed of the reversal. In a single month, Starmer’s Government has lost ground on nearly every axis of political confidence.  This early fatigue often signals a deeper problem of definition. Starmer’s original strength was his ability to embody seriousness and competence after Conservative turbulence. Yet as governing challenges mount, that reserve of credibility has drained faster than expected. The October GeoStrategy poll is a flashing red light for Downing Street. Starmer still commands institutional power and parliamentary control, but the psychological contract with the public — the belief that Labour represents a clean break — is fracturing. The lesson is brutally clear: after only a year in office Keir Starmer faces the same unforgiving dynamic that consumed his predecessors. Once the public stops believing a government can change things, technical competence is no longer enough.

Download the data tables for this poll.