The 2026 Welsh Senedd Election: Key Issues That Will Decide the Vote

With the next Welsh Senedd elections due for May 2026, our latest poll highlights the top concerns driving voter sentiment. Almost mirroring UK-wide concerns, results show that the NHS (64%), the economy (55%) and immigration (37%) are the three main issues for voters followed by the environment (23%) and housing (18%), however there are significant differences in priorities across key demographics.

#### NHS

The NHS remains the number one concern for Welsh voters, with 65% selecting it as one of their top three priorities. As expected, this sentiment is strongest among older demographics, 73% of those aged 55-64 and 69% of over-65s highlight healthcare as a key issue. Left leaning voters are also more concerned with healthcare and rank it as the issue most likely to determine their vote. Labour voters are the most concerned (81%), followed by Plaid Cymru (74%) and Liberal Democrat supporters (69%).

Wales faces the same staff shortages, long wait times and underfunding as the NHS across the UK, placing pressure on Labour to deliver reforms. Failure to do so could see opposition parties capitalising on frustration, particularly in rural areas where access to healthcare is a growing issue.

#### The Economy

At 55%, the economy ranks as the second most important issue for voters in Wales. The Welsh economy has long struggled with low growth, high poverty and weak productivity, lagging most UK regions. One in three children grows up in poverty, while economic inactivity remains at 20%. The Resolution Foundation highlights stagnant wages and lack of investment as key barriers to progress. Without bold reforms, Wales risks falling further behind, fuelling voter discontent ahead of 2026.

The economy is the top concern for Conservative voters (66%), second most important for Liberal Democrats (66%) and Reform UK (61%) voters who are most likely to prioritise economic concerns. Surprisingly, While over 50% of all voters above 24 prioritise it, only 29% of 18-24-year-olds share this concern, suggesting a generational divide.

#### Immigration

With UK immigration figures soaring, it comes as no surprise that 37% of voters listed immigration as their main concern. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has cautiously backed increased migration in some areas to combat depopulation and workforce shortages, but balancing this stance with public unease will be a key challenge for Plaid and Labour ahead of 2026.

Men (46%) are more likely to be concerned over immigration than females (29%). Notably, immigration is the only issue where 18-24s (41%) align with over-65s (47%), suggesting cross-generational concern. Reform UK supporters are by far the most focused on immigration, with 83% citing it as a top concern, compared to just 20% of Labour voters.

#### Education and Housing

Education ranks as a significant concern for younger voters, particularly those aged 18-24 (34%) and 25-34 (23%) but declines in importance among older demographics. Plaid Cymru (25%) and Labour (17%) supporters are the most likely to prioritise education, making it a key battleground for parties aiming to win over younger, more progressive voters.

Housing is another pressing issue, especially for those aged 18-24 (41%), reflecting the struggles of younger generations dealing with rising rents and desperate to get on the housing ladder. Support for housing reform is highest among Labour voters (27%) and Reform UK voters (22%) suggesting that policies addressing affordability and availability could be crucial in shaping voter choices.

With the Welsh Senedd election set for May 2026, voters are deeply concerned about healthcare, the economy and immigration, reflecting both national and regional anxieties. While Healthcare remains the dominant concern, economic stagnation and migration policies are set to shape party strategies. Housing and education also shape decisions, particularly among younger demographics. The ability of the UK’s main parties to address these pressing voter concerns will be crucial in determining the election outcome.

Download the data tables for this poll.