The Economy and Cost of Living: The Defining Issues for Trump’s second term

Data from our latest poll show the economy and the cost of living as the most pressing concerns for American voters.

In 2016, Trump’s focus on economic issues resonated with a broad swath of the electorate. His promise to “Make America Great Again” was underpinned by a pledge to bring back manufacturing jobs, renegotiate trade deals, and prioritise American workers. These commitments struck a chord with voters in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where economic anxiety was palpable.

The Trump administration’s economic record, particularly before the pandemic, saw notable successes. Unemployment reached historic lows, wages showed signs of improvement, and the stock market surged. For many voters, these tangible outcomes reinforced Trump’s reputation as a businessman who could deliver economic growth. It was that record juxtaposed against the record of President Joe Biden and his deputy Kamala Harris which saw Donald Trump win in November 2024.

Cost of Living: A Lingering Concern

Our poll highlights that the cost of living is a critical pain point for Americans. Rising inflation, escalating housing costs, and the persistent challenge of affording essentials like healthcare and education have left many voters feeling squeezed. These issues cut across party lines, affecting urban, suburban, and rural voters. For the vast majority of voters they are worse off today than they were 4 years ago.

Trump’s 2024 campaign hinged on his ability to convince voters that he was still the leader best equipped to handle the economy.

The importance of economic issues in the election campaign cannot be overstated. Swing voters, particularly in economically distressed areas, were more likely to base their decision on their personal financial situation than on polarising social issues. Trump’s gained their support as he successfully made the narrative of that election the central two questions.

1. Are you better off today than you were two years ago?
2. Which candidate is most likely to make your life better over the next four years.

With economic concerns being the frame in which Donald Trump was elected, it will be those very same concerns which will ultimately be the judge as to how successful his second term in office has been.

Download the data tables for this poll.