The Reeves Problem: Britain Has Lost Faith with the Chancellor

As the chill of November settles over Westminster, Britain finds itself approaching a defining moment. In just ten days, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her Autumn Budget, a fiscal intervention that could steady a fragile economy or deepen the country’s growing disillusionment with politics. Our new GeoStrategy poll, conducted against the backdrop of rising borrowing costs and stagnant growth, lays bare a stark truth: voters across the political spectrum are united in frustration with the Labour government, and Reeves in particular, while remaining deeply uncertain about the best path forward.

With global pressures mounting—bond yields rising, the pound under strain, and inflation refusing to fall back to target—the forthcoming Budget is no routine exercise. It is a high-stakes referendum on the economic credibility of the Labour Government. Speculation continues over whether Reeves will proceed with up to £40 billion in tax rises or instead retreat and target wealth and property through so-called “mansion taxes.” The decisions she makes will shape not only the fiscal landscape for years to come but the political terrain Labour must navigate in the run up to the 2029 election.

At the core of Britain’s political anxieties lies a familiar trio: the cost of living, the NHS, and immigration. These three issues dominate our polling, each cited by more than a third of respondents as a top concern, a pattern that has held firm since the post-pandemic squeeze began in 2023. Yet beneath this shared unease lie sharp partisan divides over what should come first.

For Reform UK voters, illegal migration and the promise to “stop the boats” stand far above any other concern. It is their overwhelming priority, eclipsing even the cost-of-living crisis. Law and order follow closely behind, while the NHS barely registers.

Labour voters present almost the mirror image. The NHS is their foremost concern, with over half ranking it as their number one issue, followed closely by rising living costs. Climate action, affordable housing and education still matter, but they sit far behind the urgent need to restore healthcare services and ease household budgets.

Conservative voters, by contrast, put the economy at the top. Fiscal stability, growth, and sound stewardship of the public finances define their priorities, with immigration close behind. The NHS remains important to many Tories, but its dominance has faded since the height of the pandemic, replaced by a renewed emphasis on economic discipline and border control.

To understand why voters, choose the parties they do, we asked respondents what criteria matter most when making their choice. Three themes emerged strongly: trust, competence, and policy alignment, the practical metrics by which voters judge whether a party can govern effectively. Competence: Can you deliver? Trust: Will you keep your word? And policy alignment: Do your values match mine? It is here that divisions sharpen further.

Labour voters put competence at the top. After fourteen years in opposition and memories of Conservative mismanagement still fresh, their demand is clear: deliver results, shorter GP waiting times, safer streets, better schools and stable public finances. For them, practical progress matters more than sweeping ideological big visions.

Conservative voters lean more heavily into policy alignment. They want a party whose values reflect their own on tax, spending and migration. Competence matters, but only when anchored in a clear and credible governing plan.

Reform voters, consistent with their populist profile, prioritise something more visceral: authenticity, “a party that speaks for people like me.” Their allegiance is emotional as much as ideological, driven by a sense of cultural exclusion and a belief that establishment politics has long ignored the concerns of ordinary men and women.

The DNA of a desirable party: Honesty, Strength, and Purpose

When asked what qualities define a party they would support, respondents gravitated towards familiar themes: honesty, fairness and competence. These are the core traits voters want across the political divide, a craving for straightforward leadership after years of scandal, evasiveness and mismanagement in Westminster.

Labour voters emphasise honesty and fairness. Starmer’s pitch of “change” depends heavily on rebuilding trust and rejecting the tribal habits of the old political class. Conservative voters see the reverse. Economic strength and resolve. Reform supporters, meanwhile, prize authenticity and defiance: parties that “stand up for Britain” and challenge perceived elites both domestically and internationally. Their preferences mirror global populist movements seen in our polls of Trump voters in the US and Le Pen voters in France.

Reeves in the hot seat: A Chancellor under pressure

And then there is Rachel Reeves. Our latest poll gives her a net approval rating of –40, the lowest we have recorded to date. Even Labour loyalists who once argued she needed time to steady the ship now believe she should be replaced. The strongest disapproval comes from Reform UK voters, but crucially, Reeves registers the lowest approval of any political figure ever recorded in our data, including the key protagonists during the most tumultuous days of the Liz Truss premiership.

Reeves’ problem is not simply the severity of the fiscal medicine she is preparing to administer; it is that voters neither want it nor consider it fair. Respondents overwhelmingly believe she has mismanaged the economy so far. Crucially for both Reeves and Starmer, the public is increasingly unable to distinguish between the inherited economic failures of the Conservative government and the early missteps of Labour’s new administration. In effect, Reeves’ poor performance has made Labour the repository for frustrations built up from the 14 years the Conservatives were in power.

Download the data tables for this poll.