Three-Way Tie: Labour, Conservatives and Reform UK Neck-and-Neck in Latest Polls

The latest voting intention poll confirms that British politics is undergoing a seismic shift, with Reform UK continuing its rapid ascent, the Conservative Party struggling to maintain its base, and Labour failing to capitalise on government unpopularity.

The poll shows a three-way tie, with Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK all polling at 25%. This represents a notable shift since the last poll, where Labour held a fragile lead at 27%, the Conservatives trailed at 23% and Reform UK sat at 25%. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats remain unchanged at 12%, while the Greens rise slightly to 8% (+1%), benefiting from Labour’s stagnation among younger voters.

Reform UK Continues to Benefit from Conservative Decline

Reform UK’s continued rise is almost entirely at the expense of the UK’s two main parties. The new data shows that 16% of 2024 Conservative voters and 15% of Labour voters have now defected to Reform UK, marking a significant shift of disillusioned voters towards Nigel Farage’s party. While Reform UK is attracting support from across the political spectrum, its primary gains come from former Conservative voters, particularly among older demographics, where the party is making deep inroads.

At 25% (+2), the Conservatives have made a minor recovery and have retained 77% of their 2024 voters but they are still leaking support to both Reform and Labour. This ongoing shift highlights the Tories’ struggle to maintain their traditional voter base, particularly among older voters, a group they have historically relied upon.

Among those aged 65+, the Conservatives still lead at 40% but Reform UK has now captured 29% of this base, a dramatic shift in the party’s stronghold. If this trend continues, the Tories could face their worst electoral result in modern history, with Reform UK cementing itself as the dominant force on the right.

Labour’s Fragile Lead Has Vanished

Labour’s 25% share represents a 2-point decline from the last poll, marking a concerning trend for Keir Starmer. Out of the three main parties, Labour’s voter base appears the most fragile, with 73% of its 2024 voters saying they would still vote Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow (-1). Continued defections to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats signal discontent within its coalition.

Labour’s strength remains concentrated among younger voters, with 39% of 18-24s and 38% of 25-34s backing the party. However, it struggles among older demographics, where Reform UK and the Conservatives dominate.

Despite these challenges, Starmer has recently been praised for his diplomatic handling of the Ukraine crisis. In contrast to Donald Trump, who has withdrawn US military aid and intelligence-sharing, Starmer has taken an active leadership role by bringing together EU leaders to commit to supporting Ukraine while also acting as a bridge between the EU and Trump, seeking to keep the former US president onside. This diplomatic positioning has strengthened Starmer’s international credibility but it remains to be seen whether it will translate into domestic political gains.

This latest poll confirms that British politics is no longer a two-party contest. The race is now a dead heat, with Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK all competing at 25%.

Labour is stagnating, losing support to both the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. The Conservatives are in freefall, with a minor recovery but still losing voters to Farage’s party. Reform UK is surging, gaining ground with ex-Tory and disillusioned working-class voters but internal conflicts could pose a risk to its long-term stability.

If these trends continue, the next general election could see Reform UK replacing the Conservatives as the primary opposition to Labour. The once-unthinkable prospect of a three-way electoral battle is now a reality, setting the stage for one of the most unpredictable elections in decades.

Download the data tables for this poll.