Trump and Vance Approval Wobbles Slightly as Loyalty Holds But the National Mood Sours

Donald Trump’s presidency has now passed the 100-day mark and while his grip on the Republican base remains strong, subtle shifts in approval ratings hint at emerging vulnerabilities. Vice President JD Vance, too, continues to build his national profile but with increased visibility comes sharper scrutiny. Together, their fortunes reflect a deeply polarised political climate, where entrenched loyalty coexists with rising frustration whilst the national mood remains pessimistic.

Trump’s Approval: Solid Support with Some Cracks Showing

At first glance from our new poll, Trump’s numbers suggest remarkable stability. His overall approval stands at 48%, a slight uptick from 47% last month, reinforcing his resilience despite a turbulent political and economic landscape. Yet a closer look reveals signs of underlying strain: disapproval has inched up to 49% (from 48%) and strong disapproval has risen to 38% (from 36%). Notably, undecided voters have dwindled to just 3%, down from 5%, suggesting the electorate is increasingly entrenched in its views.

The most telling shifts, however, are within Trump’s core support. Among his 2024 voters, approval remains high at 87% but strong approval has dipped from 56% to 50%, a subtle but potentially meaningful 6-point slide. This softening of enthusiasm likely reflects recent economic jitters, particularly the sharp GDP contraction and may indicate the first stirrings of discontent within his loyal base.

For Harris voters, opposition has only hardened. A striking 76% now say they strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, up from 73%, while approval is only 6%. This entrenched hostility underscores just how difficult it will be for Trump to broaden his appeal.

The gender gap is also clear. Strong approval among men has edged down from 32% to 30%, while for women, it fell from 26% to 22%. Meanwhile, strong disapproval among women ticked up to 42% (from 39%), reinforcing a persistent gender divide in Trump’s support. Younger voters (18–24) have become notably more critical, with strong disapproval jumping from 26% to 38%. Older voters (65+) are also showing increased frustration as 49% now strongly disapprove, up from 46%.

Overall, these results suggest that while Trump’s base remains mostly solid, it is showing signs of strain. The poll also shows that frustration is kicking in, particularly among women and younger voters, two groups that could prove pivotal in shaping future political momentum.

JD Vance: Recognition Grows but Polarisation Deepens

Vice President JD Vance’s ascent to national prominence is reflected in his slowly climbing recognition and the polarised opinions that come with it. His overall approval stands at 45% (up slightly from 44%) but his disapproval has crept up to 46% (from 44%), with strong disapproval rising to 35% (from 34%). Meanwhile, uncertainty about Vance is shrinking: just 9% of Americans are now undecided about him, down from 11% last month. In other words, more Americans are forming firm opinions and they are as divided as ever.

Vance remains popular among Trump’s 2024 voters, with 82% approving (unchanged), though strong approval dipped slightly from 50% to 47%. Among Harris voters, hostility has hardened further: 70% now strongly disapprove, up from 68%. These figures highlight Vance’s deepening entrenchment as a polarising figure which is a reflection of his close alignment with Trump’s policies and style.

National Mood: Pessimism Persists

Beyond individual approval ratings, the broader national mood remains pessimistic. Just 40% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction, unchanged from last month, while 51% say the U.S. is on the wrong track, a modest but telling rise from 50%. This paints a picture of a public weighed down by economic uncertainty, foreign policy challenges and lingering political dysfunction.

Predictably, partisanship drives much of this sentiment. Trump voters remain the most upbeat, though even here, optimism has slipped slightly with 73% saying the country is on the right path (down from 75%). Harris voters, on the other hand, are deeply pessimistic: only 11% believe the nation is heading in the right direction (down from 12%), while 85% say it’s on the wrong track, a notable increase from 81%.

Demographics also play a role. Men are more likely to be optimistic, with 45% saying the U.S. is on the right path, compared to just 35% of women. Younger voters (18–24) remain skeptical, with 37% feeling positive but older voters are the most disheartened: 57% of those aged 65+ say the country is on the wrong track, reflecting deep-rooted anxiety among seniors.

The latest data reaffirms Trump and Vance’s enduring popularity within their base but the small cracks in strong approval and the persistent national pessimism suggest early warning signs for the administration. For now, Trump retains solid Republican loyalty and Vance continues to mirror that support. However, neither has made significant inroads beyond their core voters and subtle shifts in enthusiasm hint at a possible softening of strong support.

Download the data tables for this poll.