Trust, Trump and the Collapse of the Middle Ground

The latest Geostrategy polling offers a revealing snapshot of the American political mood at the end of 2025. Asked about the direction of the country, 55% of Americans now say the United States is on the wrong track, compared with 34% who believe it is headed in the right direction. This headline figure masks one of the most polarised splits in the survey. Among those who voted for Trump in 2024, 69% say the country is moving in the right direction, while just 21% believe it is on the wrong track. Among Harris voters, the pattern is reversed: 88% say the country is on the wrong track, and only 6% believe things are improving. The “top issue” for the country, in other words, is not a single policy area but a fundamental disagreement about reality itself.

This divergence is closely linked to collapsing confidence in democratic performance. Just 6% of Americans say they are completely satisfied with how democracy is working, while 56% say they are either somewhat or completely dissatisfied. Among Democrats, dissatisfaction is overwhelming, with 57% saying they are completely dissatisfied. Republicans are far more positive, with 44% saying they are at least somewhat satisfied. Trust in democracy, much like trust in the economy in earlier polling, has become filtered through partisan experience rather than shared civic norms.

That same pattern is visible in trust across nearly all major US institutions. The military remains the most trusted institution overall, but even here confidence is far from universal and sharply divided by party. Republicans express high trust in the military, police, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and the Department of Defense, while Democrats are markedly more sceptical. Conversely, Democrats are more likely to express trust in public schools and the Department of Education, institutions that Republicans increasingly view with suspicion. Congress and the criminal justice system perform worst overall, with net distrust across almost all demographic groups, reinforcing the perception of a system that feels distant, ineffective, or biased.

Trust in the presidency itself reflects the same partisan division. Republicans express high confidence in the office under Donald Trump, while Democrats express profound distrust. At the centre of this institutional and political divide sits Donald Trump, whose favourability and leadership ratings are both highly polarising and remarkably stable. Overall, 41% approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 53% disapprove. These topline numbers conceal extremes. Among Republicans, approval rises to 86%, while among Democrats it collapses to 3%. Independents lean negative but remain less committed to that position.

On immigration, Trump is approved of by 44% overall, driven almost entirely by Republican support. On inflation and prices, approval falls to 32%, with 60% disapproving an important finding given the centrality of cost-of-living concerns. Even here, however, Republicans remain broadly supportive, while Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove. The same is true on race relations, where 34% approve of Trump’s handling and 49% disapprove, underscoring how cultural and identity-based issues remain deeply divisive.

Perceptions of Trump’s character further illustrate how partisan identity shapes everything. Just 31% of Americans describe Trump as honest and trustworthy, while 51% say he is not. Among Republicans, 74% view him as honest; among Democrats, 92% say he is not. When asked whether Trump cares about people like them, 40% say he cares at least somewhat, while 42% say he does not care at all. Once again, Republicans overwhelmingly feel seen and represented, while Democrats feel actively targeted.

Beyond Trump, party favourability ratings reveal a system just as deeply divided. Both parties are viewed extremely negatively by supporters of the opposing side, and neither command broad-based trust among independents.

In this environment, political stability depends less on persuasion than on mobilisation. Each side inhabits its own institutional universe, trusting different authorities, believing different narratives, and drawing radically different conclusions from the same set of facts.

Download the data tables for this poll.