Voters say China is the United States Greatest Threat, not Russia

This week’s latest poll shows that 36% of Americans perceive China as the United States’ greatest threat, while 29% identify Russia as the primary threat. A majority of Donald Trump supporters (45%) view China as the foremost threat, whereas a significant portion of Kamala Harris supporters (38%) consider Russia to be the greatest concern.

Historical Shifts in Perceived Threats

American perceptions of foreign threats have fluctuated over the decades, often in response to global events and shifting international dynamics. In the early 2000s, concerns centred predominantly on terrorism and the Middle East. For instance, a 2001 Gallup poll revealed that 38% of Americans viewed international terrorism as the most critical threat to U.S. interests. During this period, countries like Iraq and Iran were frequently cited as significant adversaries.

The mid-2010s marked a shift in focus towards individual states. In 2014, amid the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Gallup reported that 20% of Americans identified Russia as its greatest enemy, a notable increase from previous years. This period also saw rising apprehension about China’s growing economic and military capabilities, though it had not yet surpassed concerns about Russia.

By 2019, perceptions had evolved, with Gallup indicating that 21% of Americans viewed China as the top threat, closely followed by Russia at 19%. This near parity reflected increasing awareness of China’s global influence and economic competition. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalating U.S.-China tensions over trade, technology, and human rights issues have since intensified concerns about China especially among Republicans.

Partisan Perspectives

Among Donald Trump supporters, 45% consider China the greatest threat. This aligns with the Trump administration’s policies during his first term, which emphasised confronting China’s trade practices and strategic ambitions. Rhetoric labeling China as a principal adversary has resonated with Trump’s base, reinforcing the perception of China as a predominant threat over that of Russia. Conversely, 38% of Kamala Harris supporters identify Russia as the primary threat.

Factors Influencing Changing Perceptions towards China

Several factors contribute to the evolving perceptions of foreign threats among the American public:

1. Geopolitical Events: Actions such as Russia’s military interventions and China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea directly impact U.S. interests, shaping public opinion.
2. Economic Competition: China’s rapid economic growth and trade practices have led to concerns about job losses and economic security in the U.S.
3. Cybersecurity Threats: Both Russia and China have been implicated in cyber espionage and hacking incidents, raising alarms about national security.
4. Political Rhetoric: Leaders’ framing of foreign policy challenges influences public perception, as seen in the differing views between Trump and Harris supporters.

Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Understanding public perception is crucial for policymakers. The current sentiment suggests the next four years of the Trump Presidency are likely to see a greater foreign policy focus on China than Russia.

Download the data tables for this poll.