What the British Public Want From the Budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves enters her 2025 November Budget not with the wind at her back, but facing a political storm of her own making. After 16 months in power, Labour finds itself presiding over an economy still stuck in low gear, households still struggling under the weight of high living costs, and — perhaps most worryingly — a public increasingly convinced that the government has made life harder, not easier. Our recent polling paints a grim picture for the Labour government, with support plummeting to record lows.

The reality is stark: Reeves has raised taxes more aggressively in her first year than any Chancellor in modern history. The government has hiked employers’ National Insurance, aligned capital gains tax rates closer to income tax, reformed inheritance tax reliefs, and kept in place the income tax threshold freeze, dragging millions into higher tax brackets. Reeves insists all this is part of a necessary “economic repair programme.” The public, however, sees it rather differently: their wages are up on paper — but they are poorer. This sentiment is amplified by the broader economic malaise gripping the UK. As of November 2025, the economy is showing signs of real trouble, with growth stagnating and key indicators flashing warning signs. GDP growth for the second quarter of 2025 was revised to just 0.9% in real terms, with nominal GDP up by 1.0%, but this masks underlying weaknesses.

The Office for National Statistics reports that only half of this increase came from private domestic demand, highlighting a reliance on public sector spending rather than robust consumer or business activity.

Forecasts for the full year paint a picture of modest expansion at best, with KPMG predicting 1.2% growth in 2025, down from earlier optimism, as headwinds like persistent inflation and global uncertainties persist.

Inflation remains a stubborn issue, running hotter than the Bank of England’s 2% target. As of late 2025, consumer price inflation stands at around 3.8%, with the IMF warning that the UK faces higher price pressures than many G7 countries.

This elevated inflation erodes real wages and squeezes household budgets, compounding the effects of tax rises. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.8% in the latest figures, with projections from the British Chambers of Commerce suggesting it could rise to 4.7% through 2025 and remain elevated into 2026. Compared to international benchmarks, the UK’s unemployment rate of 4.7% in Q2 2025 exceeds that of Germany (3.7%) and the US (4.2%), signalling a labour market under strain.

Our polling shows an electorate that wants relief but expects pain. The electorate is not demanding reckless giveaways, nor a lurch back to Liz Truss-style instability. They simply want the tax pressure taken off where it hurts most — something Reeves has repeatedly insisted she “cannot afford.” The disconnect between what voters say they need and what Reeves seems willing (or able) to deliver is widening by the month. This is evident in broader approval ratings for the government. Our polling from last month indicates Labour’s net satisfaction rating has plunged into deeply negative territory, with more than half of respondents dissatisfied with the government’s handling of the economy.

Our polling shows erosion of support among working-class voters and in key Red Wall seats, where economic pressures are felt most acutely. No more so than with the issue of council tax. 43% of UK voters prioritise a reduction in council tax, with support across parties including 55% of Conservatives, 58% of Reform voters, 48% of Lib Dems, and 46% of Labour voters. Councils are raising bills faster than services can be maintained — a deterioration that Reeves’ Treasury has done nothing to arrest. For many households, council tax has become the front-line proof that Britain is paying more and receiving less. This frustration is particularly acute in regions hit hardest by economic slowdowns, where local services are stretched thin amid budget constraints imposed by central government austerity measures.

The same sentiment applies to business rates. 69% nationally want reductions or reforms — led by Reform (58%), but with strong support across the board. Reeves promised a revival of the high street, yet Britain’s town centres continue to hollow out. Each shuttered shop is, in the public imagination, another failure of the Chancellor’s “pro-growth” rhetoric. The economic context exacerbates this: with business investment contributing only marginally to GDP growth, and forecasts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies warning of narrow paths for recovery, small businesses are bearing the brunt of high rates and sluggish demand.

Meanwhile, on income tax, 50% of Britons support cuts — including 45% of Labour voters. This is a reaction to Reeves’ most politically toxic choice: continuing the stealth tax of frozen thresholds that quietly swallows pay rises. The government can talk up wage growth all it wants — voters are looking at their payslips and getting less money at the end. In an economy where real wage growth is hollow due to inflation outpacing nominal increases, this policy feels like a direct hit to living standards. Even on National Insurance, where voters are cautious about NHS funding, 46% want contributions reduced. The message is consistent: workers feel punished, not supported. This ties into broader labour market woes, where rising unemployment and underemployment are eroding confidence. The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 4% amid these pressures, as inflation lingers and the upcoming Budget looms large.

Despite voters’ pleas, the Budget briefing lines emerging from No. 11 suggest Reeves is preparing to break Labour’s manifesto pledge. This budget may turn out to be the most painful Budget in modern British history at precisely the moment voters are demanding relief. If that proves to be the case, Labour’s polling — already slumping to around 21% in our poll and 17% in others — could collapse completely.

Contrary to Labour messaging, the public are not asking for sweeping cuts to CGT or dividend rates. On capital gains tax, 41% support aligning rates with income tax, while 44% want no change. Dividend tax is similar — 48% “stay the same”. Even on niche asset-related taxes, stability dominates. Voters are clearly not calling for handouts to wealth holders. Yet, in an economy where wealth inequality is perceived as widening amid low growth, these preferences reflect a desire for fairness rather than radical overhaul.

But Reeves’ defenders cannot plausibly claim that these numbers reflect approval for her economic choices. Voters simply fear she will take even more — not that the current system is ideal. A public reluctant to see CGT cut is not necessarily a public happy with its current form. It is a public terrified that further upheaval will make their lives worse, especially as consumer confidence plummets and recession risks loom.

In 2024 the electorate did not vote for Labour expecting the highest tax burden since the 1940s. They voted for a party that pledged a change from the Conservative years, with economic renewal, revived local services, affordable living and higher real wages. Instead, what they got was rising household taxes, persistent price pressures, weak growth and falling consumer confidence.

This Budget now risks becoming the moment the country decides overwhelmingly Labour has already failed, accelerating the polling freefall and likely change of Chancellor and Prime Minister.

Download the data tables for this poll.