New Geostrategy polling suggests Sweden’s two political blocs remain closely matched ahead of the 2026 general election, with only a narrow advantage separating them.
Geostrategy’s latest Swedish voting intention poll, conducted between the 20th and 27th July and reaching 1,450 likely voters, indicates a highly competitive electoral landscape. The governing centre-right alliance and its parliamentary supporters are projected to receive a combined 49.1%, while the opposition Red-Green bloc records 50.9%, leaving the balance of power finely poised between the two camps.
At party level, the Social Democrats (S) remain Sweden’s largest party on 30.0%, followed by the Sweden Democrats (SD) on 22.0% and the Moderates (M) on 17.1%. The Left Party (V) and Centre Party (C) each poll 7.2%, while the Christian Democrats (KD) stand at 7.5% and the Green Party (MP) at 6.5%. The Liberals (L) receive 2.5%, placing them below the 4% parliamentary threshold.
Compared with the 2022 general election, the Social Democrats remain comfortably the country’s largest party, while support for the governing bloc continues to depend heavily on the Sweden Democrats. The Liberals’ position below the threshold also underlines the challenges facing the current parliamentary coalition.
The findings are broadly consistent with polling over the past month, although they place the Social Democrats towards the lower end of their recent range. Meanwhile, the Sweden Democrats record a modest improvement compared with several recent surveys, reinforcing their position as Sweden’s second-largest party.
If these figures were replicated at the next general election, Sweden would once again be heading towards a closely contested parliament. While the opposition bloc holds a narrow lead in this survey, the margin remains small enough that relatively modest shifts in public opinion could alter the balance before voters go to the polls.
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