New Geostrategy polling suggests Sweden’s two political blocs remain separated by only the narrowest of margins, with just over five weeks remaining until voters head to the polls on 13th September.

Geostrategy’s latest Swedish voting intention poll, conducted between the 30th July and 6th August and reaching 1,100 likely voters, indicates an exceptionally competitive electoral contest. The governing centre-right alliance and its parliamentary supporters are projected to receive a combined 51.0%, while the opposition Red-Green bloc stands on 49.0%, giving the government side a slender two-point advantage.

At party level, the Social Democrats (S) remain Sweden’s largest party on 34.0%, followed by the Sweden Democrats (SD) on 24.0% and the Moderates (M) on 16.0%. The Christian Democrats (KD) record 8.0%, while the Centre Party (C) stands on 6.0%, the Left Party (V) on 5.0%, the Green Party (MP) on 4.0%, and the Liberals (L) on 3.0%, leaving the Liberals below the 4% parliamentary threshold.

Compared with our previous survey, the balance between the two blocs has shifted in favour of the governing alliance and its supporters, who move from a narrow deficit to a narrow lead. The Social Democrats have strengthened their position as the country’s largest party, but gains by the Sweden Democrats, alongside continued support for the wider government bloc, leave the parliamentary arithmetic finely balanced. The Liberals also improve slightly but remain below the threshold required for representation.

With polling day now little more than a month away, the contest remains highly competitive. While this survey gives the governing bloc a modest advantage, the margin remains sufficiently narrow that relatively small movements in public opinion could still determine the composition of Sweden’s next government.

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